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Chapter 3: Methodology (Quantitative

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Methods Section: Chapter Three

The methods section , or chapter three, of the dissertation or thesis is often the most challenging for graduate students.  The methodology section, chapter three should reiterate the research questions and hypotheses, present the research design, discuss the participants, the instruments to be used, the procedure, the data analysis plan , and the sample size justification.

Research Questions and Null Hypotheses

Chapter three should begin with a portion that discusses the research questions and null hypotheses.  In the research questions and null hypotheses portion of the methodology chapter, the research questions should be restated in statistical language.  For example, “Is there a difference in GPA by gender?” is a t-test type of question, whereas “Is there a relationship between GPA and income level?” is a correlation type of question.  The important thing to remember is to use the language that foreshadows the data analysis plan .  The null hypotheses are just the research questions stated in the null; for example, “There is no difference in GPA by gender,” or “There is no relationship between GPA and income level.”

Research Design

The next portion of the methods section, chapter three is focused on developing the research design.  The research design has several possibilities. First, you must decide if you are doing quantitative, qualitative, or mixed methods research. In a quantitative study, you are assessing participants’ responses on a measure.  For example, participants can endorse their level of agreement on some scale.  A qualitative design is a typically a semi-structured interview which gets transcribed, and the themes among the participants are derived.  A mixed methods project is a mixture of both a quantitative and qualitative study.

Participants

In the research methodology, the participants are typically a sample of the population you want to study.  You are probably not going to study all school children, but you may sample from the population of school children.  You need to include information about the characteristics of the population in your study (Are you sampling all males? teachers with under five years of experience?).  This represents the participants portion of your methods section, chapter three.

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Instruments

The instruments section is a critical part of the methodology section, chapter three.  The instruments section should include the name of the instruments, the scales or subscales, how the scales are computed, and the reliability and validity of the scales.  The instruments portion should have references to the researchers who created the instruments.

The procedure section of the methods chapter is simply how you are going to administer the instruments that you just described to the participants you are going to select.  You should walk the reader through the procedure in detail so that they can replicate your steps and your study.

Data Analysis Plan

The data analysis plan is just that — how you are going to analyze the data when you get the data from your participants.   It includes the statistical tests you are going to use, the statistical assumptions of these tests, and the justification for the statistical tests.

Sample Size Justification

Another important portion of your methods chapter three, is the sample size justification.  Sample size justification (or power analysis) is selecting how many participants you need to have in your study.  The sample size is based on several criteria:  the power you select (which is typically .80), the alpha level selected (which is typically .05), and the effect size (typically, a large or medium effect size is selected).  Importantly, once these criteria are selected, the sample size is going to be based on the type of statistic: an ANOVA is going to have a different sample size calculation than a multiple regression.

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Introduction to Quantitative Research Design

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The first step in developing research is identifying the appropriate quantitative design as well as target population and sample. 

Please access the NU library database "SAGE Research Methods" for help in identifying the appropriate design for your quantitative dissertation.

Quantitative studies are experimental, quasi-experimental, or non-experimental. 

Experimental is the traditional study you may be familiar with – random sampling and experimental and control groups investigating the cause-and-effect relationship between dependent variable(s) and independent variable(s). The independent variable is manipulated by the researcher. The researcher also designs the intervention. Some examples of designs are independent measures/between groups, repeated measures/with-in groups, and matched pairs. 

Quasi-experimental is when the sample cannot be randomly sampled but still focuses on the cause-and-effect relationship between dependent variable(s) and independent variable(s). The researcher does not have control over the intervention, i.e., the groups already exist, and the independent variable (intervention/treatment) is not manipulated. The intervention/treatment has usually occurred prior to the current study. Control groups can be used but are not required like in an experimental study. Some examples of designs are causal comparative, regression analysis, and pre-test/posttest.

NOTE: Quasi-experimental is often used interchangeably with ex-post facto design, which means “after the fact.”

Non-experimental is when the sample is not randomly sampled and cause-and-effect are neither desired nor possible. These studies often can find a relationship between variables, but not which variable caused the other to change. Therefore, these studies do not have dependent nor independent variables.  Some examples of designs are correlational, cross-sectional, and observational.  

The primary non-experimental quantitative design is correlational. However, you need to keep in mind that correlational just confirms if a relationship exists between two variables, not the degree or strength of that relationship NOR the cause of the relationship. 

NOTE: Variables in correlational studies are NOT dependent and independent, they are just variables. 

If you wish to conduct a more rigorous type of quantitative study still looking at relationships, you can choose regression analysis, which will demonstrate how one variable affects the other. In regression analysis, the “independent variable(s)” should be referred to as “predictor variable(s)” and the “dependent variable(s)” as “outcome variable(s).” 

Also, a causal-comparative design (which is a quasi-experimental design) can help determine differences between groups due to an independent variable’s effect on them.

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A Practical Guide to Writing Quantitative and Qualitative Research Questions and Hypotheses in Scholarly Articles

Edward barroga.

1 Department of General Education, Graduate School of Nursing Science, St. Luke’s International University, Tokyo, Japan.

Glafera Janet Matanguihan

2 Department of Biological Sciences, Messiah University, Mechanicsburg, PA, USA.

The development of research questions and the subsequent hypotheses are prerequisites to defining the main research purpose and specific objectives of a study. Consequently, these objectives determine the study design and research outcome. The development of research questions is a process based on knowledge of current trends, cutting-edge studies, and technological advances in the research field. Excellent research questions are focused and require a comprehensive literature search and in-depth understanding of the problem being investigated. Initially, research questions may be written as descriptive questions which could be developed into inferential questions. These questions must be specific and concise to provide a clear foundation for developing hypotheses. Hypotheses are more formal predictions about the research outcomes. These specify the possible results that may or may not be expected regarding the relationship between groups. Thus, research questions and hypotheses clarify the main purpose and specific objectives of the study, which in turn dictate the design of the study, its direction, and outcome. Studies developed from good research questions and hypotheses will have trustworthy outcomes with wide-ranging social and health implications.

INTRODUCTION

Scientific research is usually initiated by posing evidenced-based research questions which are then explicitly restated as hypotheses. 1 , 2 The hypotheses provide directions to guide the study, solutions, explanations, and expected results. 3 , 4 Both research questions and hypotheses are essentially formulated based on conventional theories and real-world processes, which allow the inception of novel studies and the ethical testing of ideas. 5 , 6

It is crucial to have knowledge of both quantitative and qualitative research 2 as both types of research involve writing research questions and hypotheses. 7 However, these crucial elements of research are sometimes overlooked; if not overlooked, then framed without the forethought and meticulous attention it needs. Planning and careful consideration are needed when developing quantitative or qualitative research, particularly when conceptualizing research questions and hypotheses. 4

There is a continuing need to support researchers in the creation of innovative research questions and hypotheses, as well as for journal articles that carefully review these elements. 1 When research questions and hypotheses are not carefully thought of, unethical studies and poor outcomes usually ensue. Carefully formulated research questions and hypotheses define well-founded objectives, which in turn determine the appropriate design, course, and outcome of the study. This article then aims to discuss in detail the various aspects of crafting research questions and hypotheses, with the goal of guiding researchers as they develop their own. Examples from the authors and peer-reviewed scientific articles in the healthcare field are provided to illustrate key points.

DEFINITIONS AND RELATIONSHIP OF RESEARCH QUESTIONS AND HYPOTHESES

A research question is what a study aims to answer after data analysis and interpretation. The answer is written in length in the discussion section of the paper. Thus, the research question gives a preview of the different parts and variables of the study meant to address the problem posed in the research question. 1 An excellent research question clarifies the research writing while facilitating understanding of the research topic, objective, scope, and limitations of the study. 5

On the other hand, a research hypothesis is an educated statement of an expected outcome. This statement is based on background research and current knowledge. 8 , 9 The research hypothesis makes a specific prediction about a new phenomenon 10 or a formal statement on the expected relationship between an independent variable and a dependent variable. 3 , 11 It provides a tentative answer to the research question to be tested or explored. 4

Hypotheses employ reasoning to predict a theory-based outcome. 10 These can also be developed from theories by focusing on components of theories that have not yet been observed. 10 The validity of hypotheses is often based on the testability of the prediction made in a reproducible experiment. 8

Conversely, hypotheses can also be rephrased as research questions. Several hypotheses based on existing theories and knowledge may be needed to answer a research question. Developing ethical research questions and hypotheses creates a research design that has logical relationships among variables. These relationships serve as a solid foundation for the conduct of the study. 4 , 11 Haphazardly constructed research questions can result in poorly formulated hypotheses and improper study designs, leading to unreliable results. Thus, the formulations of relevant research questions and verifiable hypotheses are crucial when beginning research. 12

CHARACTERISTICS OF GOOD RESEARCH QUESTIONS AND HYPOTHESES

Excellent research questions are specific and focused. These integrate collective data and observations to confirm or refute the subsequent hypotheses. Well-constructed hypotheses are based on previous reports and verify the research context. These are realistic, in-depth, sufficiently complex, and reproducible. More importantly, these hypotheses can be addressed and tested. 13

There are several characteristics of well-developed hypotheses. Good hypotheses are 1) empirically testable 7 , 10 , 11 , 13 ; 2) backed by preliminary evidence 9 ; 3) testable by ethical research 7 , 9 ; 4) based on original ideas 9 ; 5) have evidenced-based logical reasoning 10 ; and 6) can be predicted. 11 Good hypotheses can infer ethical and positive implications, indicating the presence of a relationship or effect relevant to the research theme. 7 , 11 These are initially developed from a general theory and branch into specific hypotheses by deductive reasoning. In the absence of a theory to base the hypotheses, inductive reasoning based on specific observations or findings form more general hypotheses. 10

TYPES OF RESEARCH QUESTIONS AND HYPOTHESES

Research questions and hypotheses are developed according to the type of research, which can be broadly classified into quantitative and qualitative research. We provide a summary of the types of research questions and hypotheses under quantitative and qualitative research categories in Table 1 .

Research questions in quantitative research

In quantitative research, research questions inquire about the relationships among variables being investigated and are usually framed at the start of the study. These are precise and typically linked to the subject population, dependent and independent variables, and research design. 1 Research questions may also attempt to describe the behavior of a population in relation to one or more variables, or describe the characteristics of variables to be measured ( descriptive research questions ). 1 , 5 , 14 These questions may also aim to discover differences between groups within the context of an outcome variable ( comparative research questions ), 1 , 5 , 14 or elucidate trends and interactions among variables ( relationship research questions ). 1 , 5 We provide examples of descriptive, comparative, and relationship research questions in quantitative research in Table 2 .

Hypotheses in quantitative research

In quantitative research, hypotheses predict the expected relationships among variables. 15 Relationships among variables that can be predicted include 1) between a single dependent variable and a single independent variable ( simple hypothesis ) or 2) between two or more independent and dependent variables ( complex hypothesis ). 4 , 11 Hypotheses may also specify the expected direction to be followed and imply an intellectual commitment to a particular outcome ( directional hypothesis ) 4 . On the other hand, hypotheses may not predict the exact direction and are used in the absence of a theory, or when findings contradict previous studies ( non-directional hypothesis ). 4 In addition, hypotheses can 1) define interdependency between variables ( associative hypothesis ), 4 2) propose an effect on the dependent variable from manipulation of the independent variable ( causal hypothesis ), 4 3) state a negative relationship between two variables ( null hypothesis ), 4 , 11 , 15 4) replace the working hypothesis if rejected ( alternative hypothesis ), 15 explain the relationship of phenomena to possibly generate a theory ( working hypothesis ), 11 5) involve quantifiable variables that can be tested statistically ( statistical hypothesis ), 11 6) or express a relationship whose interlinks can be verified logically ( logical hypothesis ). 11 We provide examples of simple, complex, directional, non-directional, associative, causal, null, alternative, working, statistical, and logical hypotheses in quantitative research, as well as the definition of quantitative hypothesis-testing research in Table 3 .

Research questions in qualitative research

Unlike research questions in quantitative research, research questions in qualitative research are usually continuously reviewed and reformulated. The central question and associated subquestions are stated more than the hypotheses. 15 The central question broadly explores a complex set of factors surrounding the central phenomenon, aiming to present the varied perspectives of participants. 15

There are varied goals for which qualitative research questions are developed. These questions can function in several ways, such as to 1) identify and describe existing conditions ( contextual research question s); 2) describe a phenomenon ( descriptive research questions ); 3) assess the effectiveness of existing methods, protocols, theories, or procedures ( evaluation research questions ); 4) examine a phenomenon or analyze the reasons or relationships between subjects or phenomena ( explanatory research questions ); or 5) focus on unknown aspects of a particular topic ( exploratory research questions ). 5 In addition, some qualitative research questions provide new ideas for the development of theories and actions ( generative research questions ) or advance specific ideologies of a position ( ideological research questions ). 1 Other qualitative research questions may build on a body of existing literature and become working guidelines ( ethnographic research questions ). Research questions may also be broadly stated without specific reference to the existing literature or a typology of questions ( phenomenological research questions ), may be directed towards generating a theory of some process ( grounded theory questions ), or may address a description of the case and the emerging themes ( qualitative case study questions ). 15 We provide examples of contextual, descriptive, evaluation, explanatory, exploratory, generative, ideological, ethnographic, phenomenological, grounded theory, and qualitative case study research questions in qualitative research in Table 4 , and the definition of qualitative hypothesis-generating research in Table 5 .

Qualitative studies usually pose at least one central research question and several subquestions starting with How or What . These research questions use exploratory verbs such as explore or describe . These also focus on one central phenomenon of interest, and may mention the participants and research site. 15

Hypotheses in qualitative research

Hypotheses in qualitative research are stated in the form of a clear statement concerning the problem to be investigated. Unlike in quantitative research where hypotheses are usually developed to be tested, qualitative research can lead to both hypothesis-testing and hypothesis-generating outcomes. 2 When studies require both quantitative and qualitative research questions, this suggests an integrative process between both research methods wherein a single mixed-methods research question can be developed. 1

FRAMEWORKS FOR DEVELOPING RESEARCH QUESTIONS AND HYPOTHESES

Research questions followed by hypotheses should be developed before the start of the study. 1 , 12 , 14 It is crucial to develop feasible research questions on a topic that is interesting to both the researcher and the scientific community. This can be achieved by a meticulous review of previous and current studies to establish a novel topic. Specific areas are subsequently focused on to generate ethical research questions. The relevance of the research questions is evaluated in terms of clarity of the resulting data, specificity of the methodology, objectivity of the outcome, depth of the research, and impact of the study. 1 , 5 These aspects constitute the FINER criteria (i.e., Feasible, Interesting, Novel, Ethical, and Relevant). 1 Clarity and effectiveness are achieved if research questions meet the FINER criteria. In addition to the FINER criteria, Ratan et al. described focus, complexity, novelty, feasibility, and measurability for evaluating the effectiveness of research questions. 14

The PICOT and PEO frameworks are also used when developing research questions. 1 The following elements are addressed in these frameworks, PICOT: P-population/patients/problem, I-intervention or indicator being studied, C-comparison group, O-outcome of interest, and T-timeframe of the study; PEO: P-population being studied, E-exposure to preexisting conditions, and O-outcome of interest. 1 Research questions are also considered good if these meet the “FINERMAPS” framework: Feasible, Interesting, Novel, Ethical, Relevant, Manageable, Appropriate, Potential value/publishable, and Systematic. 14

As we indicated earlier, research questions and hypotheses that are not carefully formulated result in unethical studies or poor outcomes. To illustrate this, we provide some examples of ambiguous research question and hypotheses that result in unclear and weak research objectives in quantitative research ( Table 6 ) 16 and qualitative research ( Table 7 ) 17 , and how to transform these ambiguous research question(s) and hypothesis(es) into clear and good statements.

a These statements were composed for comparison and illustrative purposes only.

b These statements are direct quotes from Higashihara and Horiuchi. 16

a This statement is a direct quote from Shimoda et al. 17

The other statements were composed for comparison and illustrative purposes only.

CONSTRUCTING RESEARCH QUESTIONS AND HYPOTHESES

To construct effective research questions and hypotheses, it is very important to 1) clarify the background and 2) identify the research problem at the outset of the research, within a specific timeframe. 9 Then, 3) review or conduct preliminary research to collect all available knowledge about the possible research questions by studying theories and previous studies. 18 Afterwards, 4) construct research questions to investigate the research problem. Identify variables to be accessed from the research questions 4 and make operational definitions of constructs from the research problem and questions. Thereafter, 5) construct specific deductive or inductive predictions in the form of hypotheses. 4 Finally, 6) state the study aims . This general flow for constructing effective research questions and hypotheses prior to conducting research is shown in Fig. 1 .

Research questions are used more frequently in qualitative research than objectives or hypotheses. 3 These questions seek to discover, understand, explore or describe experiences by asking “What” or “How.” The questions are open-ended to elicit a description rather than to relate variables or compare groups. The questions are continually reviewed, reformulated, and changed during the qualitative study. 3 Research questions are also used more frequently in survey projects than hypotheses in experiments in quantitative research to compare variables and their relationships.

Hypotheses are constructed based on the variables identified and as an if-then statement, following the template, ‘If a specific action is taken, then a certain outcome is expected.’ At this stage, some ideas regarding expectations from the research to be conducted must be drawn. 18 Then, the variables to be manipulated (independent) and influenced (dependent) are defined. 4 Thereafter, the hypothesis is stated and refined, and reproducible data tailored to the hypothesis are identified, collected, and analyzed. 4 The hypotheses must be testable and specific, 18 and should describe the variables and their relationships, the specific group being studied, and the predicted research outcome. 18 Hypotheses construction involves a testable proposition to be deduced from theory, and independent and dependent variables to be separated and measured separately. 3 Therefore, good hypotheses must be based on good research questions constructed at the start of a study or trial. 12

In summary, research questions are constructed after establishing the background of the study. Hypotheses are then developed based on the research questions. Thus, it is crucial to have excellent research questions to generate superior hypotheses. In turn, these would determine the research objectives and the design of the study, and ultimately, the outcome of the research. 12 Algorithms for building research questions and hypotheses are shown in Fig. 2 for quantitative research and in Fig. 3 for qualitative research.

EXAMPLES OF RESEARCH QUESTIONS FROM PUBLISHED ARTICLES

• EXAMPLE 1. Descriptive research question (quantitative research)
• - Presents research variables to be assessed (distinct phenotypes and subphenotypes)
• “BACKGROUND: Since COVID-19 was identified, its clinical and biological heterogeneity has been recognized. Identifying COVID-19 phenotypes might help guide basic, clinical, and translational research efforts.
• RESEARCH QUESTION: Does the clinical spectrum of patients with COVID-19 contain distinct phenotypes and subphenotypes? ” 19
• EXAMPLE 2. Relationship research question (quantitative research)
• - Shows interactions between dependent variable (static postural control) and independent variable (peripheral visual field loss)
• “Background: Integration of visual, vestibular, and proprioceptive sensations contributes to postural control. People with peripheral visual field loss have serious postural instability. However, the directional specificity of postural stability and sensory reweighting caused by gradual peripheral visual field loss remain unclear.
• Research question: What are the effects of peripheral visual field loss on static postural control ?” 20
• EXAMPLE 3. Comparative research question (quantitative research)
• - Clarifies the difference among groups with an outcome variable (patients enrolled in COMPERA with moderate PH or severe PH in COPD) and another group without the outcome variable (patients with idiopathic pulmonary arterial hypertension (IPAH))
• “BACKGROUND: Pulmonary hypertension (PH) in COPD is a poorly investigated clinical condition.
• RESEARCH QUESTION: Which factors determine the outcome of PH in COPD?
• STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: We analyzed the characteristics and outcome of patients enrolled in the Comparative, Prospective Registry of Newly Initiated Therapies for Pulmonary Hypertension (COMPERA) with moderate or severe PH in COPD as defined during the 6th PH World Symposium who received medical therapy for PH and compared them with patients with idiopathic pulmonary arterial hypertension (IPAH) .” 21
• EXAMPLE 4. Exploratory research question (qualitative research)
• - Explores areas that have not been fully investigated (perspectives of families and children who receive care in clinic-based child obesity treatment) to have a deeper understanding of the research problem
• “Problem: Interventions for children with obesity lead to only modest improvements in BMI and long-term outcomes, and data are limited on the perspectives of families of children with obesity in clinic-based treatment. This scoping review seeks to answer the question: What is known about the perspectives of families and children who receive care in clinic-based child obesity treatment? This review aims to explore the scope of perspectives reported by families of children with obesity who have received individualized outpatient clinic-based obesity treatment.” 22
• EXAMPLE 5. Relationship research question (quantitative research)
• - Defines interactions between dependent variable (use of ankle strategies) and independent variable (changes in muscle tone)
• “Background: To maintain an upright standing posture against external disturbances, the human body mainly employs two types of postural control strategies: “ankle strategy” and “hip strategy.” While it has been reported that the magnitude of the disturbance alters the use of postural control strategies, it has not been elucidated how the level of muscle tone, one of the crucial parameters of bodily function, determines the use of each strategy. We have previously confirmed using forward dynamics simulations of human musculoskeletal models that an increased muscle tone promotes the use of ankle strategies. The objective of the present study was to experimentally evaluate a hypothesis: an increased muscle tone promotes the use of ankle strategies. Research question: Do changes in the muscle tone affect the use of ankle strategies ?” 23

EXAMPLES OF HYPOTHESES IN PUBLISHED ARTICLES

• EXAMPLE 1. Working hypothesis (quantitative research)
• - A hypothesis that is initially accepted for further research to produce a feasible theory
• “As fever may have benefit in shortening the duration of viral illness, it is plausible to hypothesize that the antipyretic efficacy of ibuprofen may be hindering the benefits of a fever response when taken during the early stages of COVID-19 illness .” 24
• “In conclusion, it is plausible to hypothesize that the antipyretic efficacy of ibuprofen may be hindering the benefits of a fever response . The difference in perceived safety of these agents in COVID-19 illness could be related to the more potent efficacy to reduce fever with ibuprofen compared to acetaminophen. Compelling data on the benefit of fever warrant further research and review to determine when to treat or withhold ibuprofen for early stage fever for COVID-19 and other related viral illnesses .” 24
• EXAMPLE 2. Exploratory hypothesis (qualitative research)
• - Explores particular areas deeper to clarify subjective experience and develop a formal hypothesis potentially testable in a future quantitative approach
• “We hypothesized that when thinking about a past experience of help-seeking, a self distancing prompt would cause increased help-seeking intentions and more favorable help-seeking outcome expectations .” 25
• “Conclusion
• Although a priori hypotheses were not supported, further research is warranted as results indicate the potential for using self-distancing approaches to increasing help-seeking among some people with depressive symptomatology.” 25
• EXAMPLE 3. Hypothesis-generating research to establish a framework for hypothesis testing (qualitative research)
• “We hypothesize that compassionate care is beneficial for patients (better outcomes), healthcare systems and payers (lower costs), and healthcare providers (lower burnout). ” 26
• Compassionomics is the branch of knowledge and scientific study of the effects of compassionate healthcare. Our main hypotheses are that compassionate healthcare is beneficial for (1) patients, by improving clinical outcomes, (2) healthcare systems and payers, by supporting financial sustainability, and (3) HCPs, by lowering burnout and promoting resilience and well-being. The purpose of this paper is to establish a scientific framework for testing the hypotheses above . If these hypotheses are confirmed through rigorous research, compassionomics will belong in the science of evidence-based medicine, with major implications for all healthcare domains.” 26
• EXAMPLE 4. Statistical hypothesis (quantitative research)
• - An assumption is made about the relationship among several population characteristics ( gender differences in sociodemographic and clinical characteristics of adults with ADHD ). Validity is tested by statistical experiment or analysis ( chi-square test, Students t-test, and logistic regression analysis)
• “Our research investigated gender differences in sociodemographic and clinical characteristics of adults with ADHD in a Japanese clinical sample. Due to unique Japanese cultural ideals and expectations of women's behavior that are in opposition to ADHD symptoms, we hypothesized that women with ADHD experience more difficulties and present more dysfunctions than men . We tested the following hypotheses: first, women with ADHD have more comorbidities than men with ADHD; second, women with ADHD experience more social hardships than men, such as having less full-time employment and being more likely to be divorced.” 27
• “Statistical Analysis
• ( text omitted ) Between-gender comparisons were made using the chi-squared test for categorical variables and Students t-test for continuous variables…( text omitted ). A logistic regression analysis was performed for employment status, marital status, and comorbidity to evaluate the independent effects of gender on these dependent variables.” 27

EXAMPLES OF HYPOTHESIS AS WRITTEN IN PUBLISHED ARTICLES IN RELATION TO OTHER PARTS

• EXAMPLE 1. Background, hypotheses, and aims are provided
• “Pregnant women need skilled care during pregnancy and childbirth, but that skilled care is often delayed in some countries …( text omitted ). The focused antenatal care (FANC) model of WHO recommends that nurses provide information or counseling to all pregnant women …( text omitted ). Job aids are visual support materials that provide the right kind of information using graphics and words in a simple and yet effective manner. When nurses are not highly trained or have many work details to attend to, these job aids can serve as a content reminder for the nurses and can be used for educating their patients (Jennings, Yebadokpo, Affo, & Agbogbe, 2010) ( text omitted ). Importantly, additional evidence is needed to confirm how job aids can further improve the quality of ANC counseling by health workers in maternal care …( text omitted )” 28
• “ This has led us to hypothesize that the quality of ANC counseling would be better if supported by job aids. Consequently, a better quality of ANC counseling is expected to produce higher levels of awareness concerning the danger signs of pregnancy and a more favorable impression of the caring behavior of nurses .” 28
• “This study aimed to examine the differences in the responses of pregnant women to a job aid-supported intervention during ANC visit in terms of 1) their understanding of the danger signs of pregnancy and 2) their impression of the caring behaviors of nurses to pregnant women in rural Tanzania.” 28
• EXAMPLE 2. Background, hypotheses, and aims are provided
• “We conducted a two-arm randomized controlled trial (RCT) to evaluate and compare changes in salivary cortisol and oxytocin levels of first-time pregnant women between experimental and control groups. The women in the experimental group touched and held an infant for 30 min (experimental intervention protocol), whereas those in the control group watched a DVD movie of an infant (control intervention protocol). The primary outcome was salivary cortisol level and the secondary outcome was salivary oxytocin level.” 29
• “ We hypothesize that at 30 min after touching and holding an infant, the salivary cortisol level will significantly decrease and the salivary oxytocin level will increase in the experimental group compared with the control group .” 29
• EXAMPLE 3. Background, aim, and hypothesis are provided
• “In countries where the maternal mortality ratio remains high, antenatal education to increase Birth Preparedness and Complication Readiness (BPCR) is considered one of the top priorities [1]. BPCR includes birth plans during the antenatal period, such as the birthplace, birth attendant, transportation, health facility for complications, expenses, and birth materials, as well as family coordination to achieve such birth plans. In Tanzania, although increasing, only about half of all pregnant women attend an antenatal clinic more than four times [4]. Moreover, the information provided during antenatal care (ANC) is insufficient. In the resource-poor settings, antenatal group education is a potential approach because of the limited time for individual counseling at antenatal clinics.” 30
• “This study aimed to evaluate an antenatal group education program among pregnant women and their families with respect to birth-preparedness and maternal and infant outcomes in rural villages of Tanzania.” 30
• “ The study hypothesis was if Tanzanian pregnant women and their families received a family-oriented antenatal group education, they would (1) have a higher level of BPCR, (2) attend antenatal clinic four or more times, (3) give birth in a health facility, (4) have less complications of women at birth, and (5) have less complications and deaths of infants than those who did not receive the education .” 30

Research questions and hypotheses are crucial components to any type of research, whether quantitative or qualitative. These questions should be developed at the very beginning of the study. Excellent research questions lead to superior hypotheses, which, like a compass, set the direction of research, and can often determine the successful conduct of the study. Many research studies have floundered because the development of research questions and subsequent hypotheses was not given the thought and meticulous attention needed. The development of research questions and hypotheses is an iterative process based on extensive knowledge of the literature and insightful grasp of the knowledge gap. Focused, concise, and specific research questions provide a strong foundation for constructing hypotheses which serve as formal predictions about the research outcomes. Research questions and hypotheses are crucial elements of research that should not be overlooked. They should be carefully thought of and constructed when planning research. This avoids unethical studies and poor outcomes by defining well-founded objectives that determine the design, course, and outcome of the study.

Disclosure: The authors have no potential conflicts of interest to disclose.

Author Contributions:

• Conceptualization: Barroga E, Matanguihan GJ.
• Methodology: Barroga E, Matanguihan GJ.
• Writing - original draft: Barroga E, Matanguihan GJ.
• Writing - review & editing: Barroga E, Matanguihan GJ.

CHAPTER 3 - RESEARCH METHODOLOGY: Data collection method and Research tools

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• Chapter Four: Quantitative Methods (Part 3 - Making Sense of Your Study)

After you have designed your study, collected your data, and analyzed it, you have to figure out what it means and communicate that to potential interested audiences. This section of the chapter is about how to make sense of your study, in terms of data interpretation, data write-up, and data presentation, as seen in the above diagram.

• Chapter One: Introduction
• Chapter Two: Understanding the distinctions among research methods
• Chapter Three: Ethical research, writing, and creative work
• Chapter Four: Quantitative Methods (Part 1)
• Chapter Four: Quantitative Methods (Part 2 - Doing Your Study)
• Chapter Five: Qualitative Methods (Part 1)
• Chapter Five: Qualitative Data (Part 2)
• Chapter Six: Critical / Rhetorical Methods (Part 1)
• Chapter Six: Critical / Rhetorical Methods (Part 2)
• Chapter Seven: Presenting Your Results

Data Interpretation

Once you have run your statistics, you have to figure out what your findings mean or interpret your data. To do this, you need to tie back your findings to your research questions and/or hypotheses, think about how your findings relate to what you discovered beforehand about the already existing literature, and determine how your findings take the literature or current theory in the field further. Your interpretation of the data you collected will be found in the last section of your paper, what is commonly called the "discussion" section.

Remember Your RQs/Hs

Your research questions and hypotheses, once developed, should guide your study throughout the research process. As you are choosing your research design, choosing how to operationalize your variables, and choosing/conducting your statistical tests, you should always keep your RQs and Hs in mind.

What were you wanting to discover by your study? What were you wanting to test? Make sure you answer these questions clearly for the reader of your study in both the results and discussion section of the paper. (Specific guidelines for these sections will be covered later in this chapter, including the common practice of placing the data as you present it with each research question in the results section.)

Tie Findings to Your Literature Review

As you have seen in chapter 3 and the Appendix, and will see in chapter 7, the literature review is what you use to set up your quantitative study and to show why there is a need for your study. It should start out broad, with the context for your study, and lead into showing what still needs to be known and studied about your topic area, justifying your focus in the study. It will be brought in again in the last section of the paper you write, i.e., the discussion section.

Your paper is like an hourglass – starting out broad and narrowing down in the middle with your actual study and findings, and then moving to broad implications for the larger context of your study near the end.

Think about Relationship of Findings to Theory

One of the things you will write about in your discussion or last section of your paper is the implications of what you found. These implications are both practical and theoretical. Practical implications are how the research can provide practical applications to real-world people and issues. Theoretical implications are how the research takes the current academic literature further, specifically, in relationship to theory-building.

Did any of the research you reviewed for your literature review mention a theory your findings could expand upon? If so, you should think about how your findings related to this theory. If not, then think about the theories you have already studied in your communication classes. Would any of them provide a possible explanation of what you found? Would your findings help expand that theory to a different context, the context you studied? Does a theory need to be developed in the area of your research? If so, then what aspects of that theory could your findings help explain?

Data Write-Up

All quantitative studies, when written, have four parts. The first part is the introduction and literature review, the second part is the methods section, the third section is the results or findings, and the fourth section is the discussion section. This portion of this chapter will explain what elements you will need to include in each of these sections.

Literature Review

The beginning of your paper and first few pages sets the tone for your study. It tells the reader what the context of your study is and what other people who are also interested in your topic have studied about your topic.

There are many ways to organize a literature review, as can be seen in the following website. Literature Reviews — The Writing Center at UNC-Chapel Hill

After you have done a thorough literature search on your topic, then you have to organize your literature into topics of some kind. Your main goal is to show what has been done and what still needs to be done, to show the need for your study, so at the end of each section of your literature review, you should identify what still needs to be known about that particular area.

For quantitative research, you should do your literature review before coming up with your research questions/hypotheses. Your questions and hypotheses should flow from the literature. This is different from the other two research methods discussed in this book, which do not rely so heavily on a literature review to situation the study before conducting it.

In the methods section, you should tell your reader how you conducted your study, from start to finish, explaining why you made the choices you did along the way. A reader should be able to replicate your study from the descriptions you provide in this section of your write-up. Common headings in the methods section include a description of the participants, procedures, and analysis.

Participants

For the participants' subheading of the methods section, you should minimally report the demographics of your sample in terms of biological sex (frequencies/percentages), age (range of ages and mean), and ethnicity (frequencies/percentages). If you collected data on other demographics, such as socioeconomic status, religious affiliation, type of occupation, etc., then you can report data for that also in the participants' sub-section.

For the procedures sub-section, you report everything you did to collect your data: how you recruited your participants, including what type of sampling you used (probability or non-probability) and informed consent procedures; how you operationalized your variables (including your survey questions, which often are explained in the methods section briefly while the whole survey can be found in an appendix of your paper); the validity and reliability of your survey instrument or methods you used; and what type of study design you had (experimental, quasi-experimental, or non-experimental). For each one of these design issues, in this sub-section of the methods part, you need to explain why you made the decisions you did in order to answer your research questions or test your hypotheses.

In this section, you explain how you converted your data for analysis and how you analyzed your data. You need to explain what statistics you chose to run for each of your research questions/hypotheses and why.

In this section of your paper, you organize the results by your research questions/hypotheses. For each research question/hypothesis, you should present any descriptive statistic results first and then your inferential statistics results. You do not make any interpretation of what your results mean or why you think you got the results you did. You merely report your results.

Reporting Significant Results

For each of the inferential statistics, there is a typical template you can follow when reporting significant results: reporting the test statistic value, the degrees of freedom  3 , and the probability level. Examples follow for each of the statistics we have talked about in this text.

T-test results

"T-tests results show there was a significant difference found between men and women on their levels of self-esteem,  t  (df) = t value,  p  < .05, with men's self-esteem being higher (or lower) (men's mean & standard deviation) than women's self-esteem (women's mean & standard deviation)."

ANOVA results

"ANOVA results indicate there was a significant difference found between [levels of independent variable] on [dependent variable],  F  (df) = F value,  p  < .05."

If doing a factorial ANOVA, you would report the above sentence for all of your independent variables (main effects), as well as for the interaction (interaction effect), with language something like: "ANOVA results indicate a significant main effect for [independent variable] on [dependent variable],  F  (df) = F value,  p  < .05. .... ANOVA results indicate a significant interaction effect between [independent variables] on [dependent variable],  F  (df) = F value,  p  < .05."

See example YouTube tutorial for writing up a two-way ANOVA at the following website.

Factorial Design (Part C): Writing Up Results

Chi-square results

For goodness of fit results, your write-up would look something like: "Using a chi-square goodness of fit test, there was a significant difference found between observed and expected values of [variable], χ2 (df) = chi-square value,  p  < .05." For test of independence results, it would like like: "Using a chi-square test of independence, there was a significant interaction between [your two variables], χ2 (df) = chi-square value,  p  < .05."

Correlation results

"Using Pearson's [or Spearman's] correlation coefficient, there was a significant relationship found between [two variables],  r  (df) = r value,  p  < .05." If there are a lot of significant correlation results, these results are often presented in a table form.

For more information on these types of tables, see the following website:  Correlation Tables .

Regression results

Reporting regression results is more complicated, but generally, you want to inform the reader about how much variance is accounted by the regression model, the significance level of the model, and the significance of the predictor variable. For example:

A regression analysis, predicting GPA scores from GRE scores, was statistically significant,  F (1,8) = 10.34,  p  < .05.

Coefficientsa

The regression equation is: Ŷ = .411 * .005X. For every one unit increase in GRE score, there is a corresponding increase in GPA of .005 (Walen-Frederick, n.d., p. 4).

For more write-up help on regression and other statistics, see the following website location:

Multiple Regression  (pp. 217-220)

Reporting Non-Significant Results

You can follow a similar template when reporting non-significant results for all of the above inferential statistics. It is the same as provided in the above examples, except the word "non-significant" replaces the word "significant," and the  p  values are adjusted to indicate  p > .05.

Many times readers of articles do not read the whole article, especially if they are afraid of the statistical sections. When this happens, they often read the discussion section, which makes this a very important section in your writing. You should include the following elements in your discussion section: (a) a summary of your findings, (b) implications, (c) limitations, and (d) future research ideas.

Summary of Findings

You should summarize the answers to your research questions or what you found when testing your hypotheses in this sub-section of the discussion section. You should not report any statistical data here, but just put your results into narrative form. What did you find out that you did not know before doing your study? Answer that question in this sub- section.

Implications

You need to indicate why your study was important, both theoretically and practically. For the theoretical implications, you should relate what you found to the already existing literature, as discussed earlier when the "hourglass" format was mentioned as a way of conceptualizing your whole paper. If your study added anything to the existing theory on a particular topic, you talk about this here as well.

For practical implications, you need to identify for the reader how this study can help people in their real-world experiences related to your topic. You do not want your study to just be important to academic researchers, but also to other professionals and persons interested in your topic.

Limitations

As you get through conducting your study, you are going to realize there are things you wish you had done differently. Rather than hide these things from the reader, it is better to forthrightly state these for the reader. Explain why your study is limited and what you wish you had done in this sub-section.

Future Research

The limitations sub-section usually is tied directly to the future research sub-section, as your limitations mean that future research should be done to deal with these limitations. There may also be other things that could be studied, however, as a result of what you have found. What would other people say are the "gaps" your study left unstudied on your topic? These should be identified, with some suggestions on how they might be studied.

Other Aspects of the Paper

There are other parts of the academic paper you should include in your final write-up. We have provided useful resources for you to consider when including these aspects as part of your paper. For an example paper that uses the required APA format for a research paper write-up, see the following source:  Varying Definitions of Online Communication .

Abstract & Titles.

Research Abstracts General Format

Tables, References, & Other Materials.

APA Tables and Figures 1 Reference List: Basic Rules

Data Presentation

You will probably be called upon to present your data in other venues besides in writing. Two of the most common venues are oral presentations such as in class or at conferences, and poster presentations, such as what you might find at conferences. You might also be called upon to not write an academic write-up of your study, but rather to provide an executive summary of the results of your study to the "powers that be," who do not have time to read more than 5 pages or so of a summary. There are good resources for doing all of these online, so we have provided these here.

Oral Presentations

Oral Presentations Delivering Presentations

Poster Presentations

Executive Summary

Executive Summaries Complete the Report Good & Poor Examples of Executive Summaries with the following link: http://unilearning.uow.edu.au/report/4bi1.html

Congratulations! You have learned a great deal about how to go about using quantitative methods for your future research projects. You have learned how to design a quantitative study, conduct a quantitative study, and write about a quantitative study. You have some good resources you can take with you when you leave this class. Now, you just have to apply what you have learned to projects that will come your way in the future.

Remember, just because you may not like one method the best does not mean you should not use it. Your research questions/hypotheses should ALWAYS drive your choice of which method you use. And remember also that you can do quantitative methods!

[NOTE: References are not provided for the websites cited in the text, even though if this was an actual research article, they would need to be cited.]

Baker, E., Baker, W., & Tedesco, J. C. (2007). Organizations respond to phishing: Exploring the public relations tackle box.  Communication Research Reports, 24  (4), 327-339.

Benoit, W. L., & Hansen, G. J. (2004). Presidential debate watching, issue knowledge, character evaluation, and vote choice.  Human Communication Research, 30  (1), 121-144.

Chatham, A. (1991).  Home vs. public schooling: What about relationships in adolescence? Doctoral dissertation, University of Oklahoma.

Cousineau, T. M., Rancourt, D., and Green, T. C. (2006). Web chatter before and after the women's health initiative results: A content analysis of on-line menopause message boards.  Journal of Health Communication, 11 (2), 133-147.

Derlega, V., Winstead, B. A., Mathews, A., and Braitman, A. L. (2008). Why does someone reveal highly personal information?: Attributions for and against self-disclosure in close relationships.  Communication Research Reports, 25 , 115-130.

Fischer, J., & Corcoran, K. (2007).  Measures for clinical practice and research: A sourcebook (volumes 1 & 2) . New York: Oxford University Press.

Guay, S., Boisvert, J.-M., & Freeston, M. H. (2003). Validity of three measures of communication for predicting relationship adjustment and stability among a sample of young couples.  Psychological Assessment , 15(3), 392-398.

Holbert, R. L., Tschida, D. A., Dixon, M., Cherry, K., Steuber, K., & Airne, D. (2005). The  West Wing  and depictions of the American Presidency: Expanding the domains of framing in political communication.  Communication Quarterly, 53  (4), 505-522.

Jensen, J. D. (2008). Scientific uncertainty in news coverage of cancer research: Effects of hedging on scientists' and journalists' credibility.  Human Communication Research, 34 , 347- 369.

Keyton, J. (2011).  Communicating research: Asking questions, finding answers . New York: McGraw Hill.

Lenhart, A., Ling, R., Campbell, S., & Purcell, K. (2010, Apr. 10).  Teens and mobile phones . Report from the Pew Internet and American Life Project, retrieved from  http://www.pewinternet.org/Reports/2010/Teens-and-Mobile-Phones.aspx .

Maddy, T. (2008).  Tests: A comprehensive reference for assessments in psychology, education, and business . Austin, TX: Pro-Ed.

McCollum Jr., J. F., & Bryant, J. (2003). Pacing in children's television programming.  Mass Communication and Society, 6  (2), 115-136.

Medved, C. E., Brogan, S. M., McClanahan, A. M., Morris, J. F., & Shepherd, G. J. (2006). Family and work socializing communication: Messages, gender, and ideological implications.  Journal of Family Communication, 6 (3), 161-180.

Moyer-Gusé, E., & Nabi, R. L. (2010). Explaining the effects of narrative in an entertainment television program: Overcoming resistance to persuasion.  Human Communication Research, 36 , 26-52.

Nabi, R. L. (2009). Cosmetic surgery makeover programs and intentions to undergo cosmetic enhancements: A consideration of three models of media effects.  Human Communication Research, 35 , 1-27.

Pearson, J. C., DeWitt, L., Child, J. T., Kahl Jr., D. H., and Dandamudi, V. (2007). Facing the fear: An analysis of speech-anxiety content in public-speaking textbooks.  Communication Research Reports, 24 (2), 159-168.

Rubin. R. B., Rubin, A. M., Graham, E., Perse, E. M., & Seibold, D. (2009).  Communication research measures II: A sourcebook . New York: Routledge.

Serota, K. B., Levine, T. R., and Boster, F. J. (2010). The prevalence of lying in America: Three studies of reported deception.  Human Communication Research, 36 , 1-24.

Sheldon, P. (2008). The relationship between unwillingness-to-communicate and students' facebook use.  Journal of Media Psychology, 20 (2), 67–75.

Trochim, W. M. K. (2006). Reliability and validity.  Research methods data base , retrieved from  http://www.socialresearchmethods.net/kb/relandval.php .

Walen-Frederick, H. (n.d.).  Help sheet for reading SPSS printouts . Retrieved from  http://www.scribd.com/doc/51982223/help-sheet-for-reading-spss-printouts .

Weaver, A. J., & Wilson, B. J. (2009). The role of graphic and sanitized violence in the enjoyment of television dramas.  Human Communication Research, 35 (3), 442-463.

Weber, K., Corrigan, M., Fornash, B., & Neupauer, N. C. (2003). The effect of interest on recall: An experiment.  Communication Research Reports, 20 (2), 116-123.

Witt, P. L., & Schrodt, P. (2006). The influence of instructional technology use and teacher immediacy on student affect for teacher and course.  Communication Reports, 19 (1), 1-15.

3 Degrees of freedom (df) relate to your sample size and to the number of groups being compared. SPSS always computes the df for your statistics. For more information on degrees of freedom, see the following web-based resources:  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wsvfasNpU2s  and  http://www.creative-wisdom.com/pub/df/index.htm .

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Nuclear Proliferation

• Open Access
• First Online: 28 August 2024

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• Doug Brugge 3 &
• Aaron Datesman 4  

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Supporters of nuclear power expansion resist the notion that nuclear power is connected to nuclear weapons proliferation. However, nuclear power is a necessary precondition, albeit insufficient by itself, for developing nuclear weapons. Plutonium, which is produced by all nuclear reactors in their waste stream, is a primary concern because it can be, and has been, purified in large quantities, small amounts of which are needed for a bomb.

Doug Brugge is the primary author of this chapter.

You have full access to this open access chapter,  Download chapter PDF

• Nuclear weapons
• Nuclear power
• Proliferation

On March 29, 1976, former US Government officials who had worked on nuclear weapons released statements jointly under the headline, “The Peaceful Atom Goes to War”. The officials were:

Dr. George Kistiakowsky, Head of Explosives Division for the Manhattan Project and Special Assistant to President Eisenhower;

Dr. Theodore Taylor who had been a nuclear weapons designer at Los Alamos Laboratories and Deputy Director of the Defense Department's Atomic Support Agency;

Herbert Scoville, formerly Technical Director of the Armed Forces Special Weapons Project and Head of Scientific Intelligence at the CIA;

Dr. George Rathjens, previously Director of Weapons System Evaluation and former Chief Scientist, Advanced Research Projects Agency, Department of Defense; and

Dr. Bernard Feld, Assistant Leader of the Critical Assembly Group, WW II Atom Bomb Project, Former Secretary General, Pugwash International Scientific Conferences, Vice-President of the American Academy of Science Editor in Chief, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists.

Scoville went first, laying out the overall theme of their mission:

The four of us are assembled here today at Princeton in the office which was being used by Professor Albert Einstein when the awesome potentialities of a nuclear explosion were first recognized. As a result of discussions in this very office, Einstein wrote to President Roosevelt urging a programme to ensure that this dangerous weapon did not fall into Nazi hands. This was the genesis of the atomic bomb. Now some thirty years later we are gathered here because we are concerned that these weapons will soon fall into many hands in many corners of the world – into the hands of unstable national governments, aggressive military cliques or irresponsible terrorist groups, with incalculable consequences for us all. This danger is the direct result of the uncontrolled growth of the nuclear power industry, which is making widely available the materials needed for such weapons ” (CCNR, 1976 )

What is remarkable in that quote is the unambiguous link to nuclear power that was evident to this highly knowledgeable expert in the field of nuclear technology and his colleagues over 40 years ago. Despite the certainty of this connection through the interceding decades, there continues today to be attempts to obfuscate and blur the issue in the public eye.

Writing in the New York Times, Joshua S. Goldstein and Staffan A. Qvist, authors of “A Bright Future: How Some Countries Have Solved Climate Change and the Rest Can Follow” along with Steven Pinker, professor of psychology at Harvard University, claim nuclear power has, “not contributed to weapons proliferation, thanks to robust international controls: 24 countries have nuclear power but not weapons, while Israel and North Korea have nuclear weapons but not power” (Goldstein et al., 2019 ).

The authors make this claim by including 16 countries that developed nuclear power while under the umbrella of either NATO or the Soviet Union. They also claim that North Korea and Israel developed nuclear weapons without nuclear power, but that is also deceptive because both have nuclear reactors, just not commercial use of nuclear power to generate electricity.

With the five major nuclear powers (US, UK, Russia, France and China) that leaves a number of countries that either were in the past, are or could become threats of gaining nuclear weapons. These countries are: South Africa, Argentina, Brazil, Bangladesh, Egypt, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates. It also leaves aside India and Pakistan, who developed nuclear weapons outside the non-proliferation agreement (Fig. 4.1 ).

Maps of countries ( a ) possessing, or having sought, nuclear weapons and ( b ) the location of nuclear power plants largely coincide, with the notable exception of Japan and Germany, both of which were demilitarized after World War II and effectively operate under the protection of US nuclear weapons. (( a ) Source: Our World in Data ( n.d. ), ( b ) Source: Carbon Brief ( 2016 ))

The primary challenge to making a nuclear weapon is obtaining fissionable material. There are two types of fissionable material that can be used, either highly enriched uranium or plutonium. Natural uranium comes in two “isotopes” that have different molecular weights of 235 and 238. Only uranium 235 can be used in a nuclear reactor or bomb.

Uranium 235 is present in only tiny quantities in natural uranium. There are several industrial processes that enrich uranium 235. These are gaseous diffusion, gas centrifugation and use of lasers. Low level enrichment of uranium to 3.5–5.0% uranium 235 is necessary to produce fuel for nuclear reactors. Greater than 90% uranium 235, or highly enriched uranium, is required for use in bombs.

The same processes can be used to enrich to levels for use in nuclear power plants or for production of bomb grade material. Therein lies a problem with extending nuclear technology for peaceful, power generating purposes to countries that might want to make weapons. They can claim, as has Iran in recent years, that they are enriching uranium for peaceful purposes even if they are probably aiming to enrich to a higher grade for use in weapons (Crowley et al., 2023 ).

Most people assume uranium and plutonium are hazardous. However, their fear is often focused on the health consequences of exposure to radiation, which is not the main concern they should have, as both elements release only low levels of radiation. Rather, the serious risk is that very small quantities of enriched uranium and even smaller amounts of plutonium, can initiate a nuclear fission chain reaction. An unintentional event of this nature is called a criticality.

An historical example that is not well known outside of those with deep knowledge of nuclear events in the US serves to illustrate this danger. Karl Z Morgan was a physicist and a founder of the field of health physics. Toward the end of his life he became critical of nuclear power and nuclear weapons. In his autobiography, “The Angry Genie: One Man’s Walk Through the Nuclear Age”, he retells the story of a criticality at the Union Carbide Nuclear Company, Y-12 Plant at Oak Ridge, Tennessee (Crowley et al., 2023 ).

Because of the risk of a criticality, the facility had a prohibition against bringing in even relatively small containers that might somehow end up with enough enriched uranium in them to start a chain reaction. While most of the people working there had been trained, they apparently did not think to train the janitor, a Black man, who might also have been neglected due to his race.

Morgan writes:

One morning the janitor commenced his early morning tasks in the Y-12 building before the operators arrived. Annoyed that a puddle of dirty yellowish solution had repeatedly collected on the floor, he ‘solved’ the problem. He retrieved a 55-gallon rain barrel from outside the building and placed it under the pipe where it would catch the slowly dripping fluid. Day after day and week after week this barrel remained in an inconspicuous place behind some machinery.

Until finally, in Morgan’s words:

I was in my office at X-10 that morning when the phone rang. I picked up the receiver to hear someone shouting, ‘We have a criticality accident at Y-12 and thousands of employees are evacuating the plant!’

I reached for my emergency kit and rushed for the door. My assistant, Hubert Yockey, grabbed his kit as well, and we ran out to a company car. I drove the ten-mile distance over a rough sandy road to Y-12 in eight minutes. Hundreds of persons milled outside the gate. Only our car was permitted past the guards and allowed to enter the area where minutes before thousands of people had been at work. When Yockey and I entered the windowless building that contained the problem, darkness engulfed us. I muttered to myself, ‘My kingdom for a flashlight.’ …. A faint light shone from a battery operated emergency lamp in the far end of the building, and we ‘homed in’ on the life-threatening barrel as best we could. Unable to read the scales on the Geiger counter, we could hear the clicks sounding faster and faster as we approached the far end of the building.

Each time the Geiger counter needle banged the end of the scale, we changed to a higher scale as we approached the radioactive source. Most important, we listened for clicks on our Hurst neutron dosimeter. Fortunately, we heard none. The presence of neutrons would mean a life-threatening critical assembly still existed.

The clicks from our Geiger counter saturated or ran together on the highest scale, so the counter stopped clicking. …. We ran from the building.” After they reported out, a team “put on protective clothing and masks, rushed into the building, and poured into the barrel a high concentration of borax, which absorbs neutrons and “kills” any possibility of a critical assembly of the fluid.

Blood samples taken promptly afterward revealed that many employees had received “impermissibly high neutron and associated gamma dose[s].” “Five of the Y-12 workers experienced radiation sickness and [loss of hair]. Those who received [high doses] of radiation experienced some [bleeding] …. Even the individual who received [a lower dose] showed some symptoms of radiation injury.” (Crowley et al., 2023 ).

The point is that fissionable materials are very dangerous, in even tiny amounts.

The other source of fissionable material is plutonium. However, the source of plutonium is different than fissionable uranium. Plutonium exists in only trace quantities in natural uranium deposits, but it is produced by fission in nuclear reactors. To obtain enough for use in nuclear power or weapons, it must be chemically removed from the other highly radioactive byproducts of nuclear fission.

Extracting and purifying plutonium from high level nuclear reactor waste is a hazardous industrial operation (Fig. 4.2 ), but a country hoping to obtain nuclear weapons capability need not undertake the process itself if it can find another country willing to sell plutonium. A telling example is India. In 1974, India used plutonium from a Canadian reactor to build and detonate its first atomic bomb in an underground test.

A reprocessing plant that extracts plutonium from high level nuclear waste from nuclear reactors. The resulting plutonium can be used in both nuclear power plants and nuclear weapons. (Source: Aerial view Sellafield, Cumbria ( 2020 ), © Simon Ledingham: Geography Britain and Ireland)

Thus, the extension of nuclear weapons status to India was based on political and economic decisions. Obtaining enriched uranium or plutonium remains the largest barrier to building a nuclear explosive. The rest of the design and construction consists of straightforward engineering issues. Less than 5 kilograms of plutonium is enough for one bomb.

It is concerning that there may be 1000 tons of plutonium produced, stored or used in weapons today (Wikipedia, 2023b ). While there is tight security, it would take release, misplacement, or sale of a tiny amount to give a non-nuclear country enough to gain nuclear weapons. It’s worth mentioning how much Pu and U-235 the US has lost, called, euphemistically, Material Unaccounted For (MUF). In 2012, the amount was 6 tons.

Canada is considered a peaceful country, however the potential for Canada to contribute to nuclear proliferation remains. Dr. Gordon Edwards, President of the Canadian Coalition on Nuclear Responsibility, has taken an active role opposing Canadian proposals to develop a nuclear reactor that depends on producing and extracting plutonium as fuel (called “breeder” reactors because they increase plutonium). The intention is to sell those reactors to other countries around the world, spreading access to the very technology required to be able to produce nuclear weapons.

A Canadian House of Commons committee recommended that the government “work with international and scientific partners to examine nuclear waste reprocessing and its implications for waste management and [nuclear weapons] proliferation vulnerability.” The recommendation followed on a $50.5 million grant to the Moltex corporation awarded in March 2021 to “develop a plutonium reprocessing facility at the Point Lepreau nuclear site on the Bay of Fundy.” (CRED-NB, 2023 ).

Dr. Edwards said in a press release, “By supporting the implementation of reprocessing technology intended for export, in connection with a plutonium-fueled nuclear reactor, without regard for the weapons implications, Canada may be once again spreading the bomb abroad,” (CRED-NB, 2023 ).

When India achieved nuclear weapons status, it created the pressure for Pakistan, its arch enemy, to follow. That did not happen immediately though as the path to a nuclear weaponized Pakistan was convoluted and involved technology transfer from the US and China. According to the New York Times, China gave Pakistan the design for a nuclear weapon as well as highly enriched uranium (Weiner, 1998 ).

The US also helped Pakistan based on a geopolitical calculation that Pakistan was an enemy of India and India was closer to the Soviet Union, the strategic rival of the US. Following this logic, the US provided Pakistan with its first research nuclear reactor, giving them technologic skills necessary, but not sufficient, for building weapons. During the time when the US was backing Muslim rebels against the Soviet aligned Afghan government, the US, in the words of the NYTs, “turned a blind eye” to Pakistan’s nuclear weapons program (Weiner, 1998 ).

Unlike Pakistan, for whom obtaining a nuclear reactor played a small part in developing nuclear weapons, building a nuclear reactor was central to the path by which Israel became a nuclear power. While Israel neither confirms nor denies its nuclear capacity, it is well established that they have hundreds of nuclear warheads, although the exact number and nature – tactical vs. full sized – and their delivery mechanisms remain unclear.

The inability to separate “Atoms for Peace”, the Eisenhower program to spread nuclear power without weaponization, is inherent in the Israeli nuclear program. Israel eagerly signed onto Atoms for Peace, while secretly using peaceful intent as a cover for developing nuclear weapons, an approach repeated by other would-be nuclear players in later years.

Under the guise of peaceful nuclear power to be used to desalinate seawater that would irrigate the desert, France helped Israel build its first nuclear reactor at Dimona (Fig. 4.3 ). For our purposes, the point is that this reactor was used to generate plutonium, separated from the rest of the waste at a reprocessing center and then used in nuclear weapons. To be clear, plutonium extracted from fuel rods in the reactor was critical, but it was not sufficient by itself. Additional technology and skills were also obtained, including heavy water secretly shipped from the UK through Norway and yellow cake, concentrated uranium from ore, provided by Argentina (Burr & Cohen, n.d. ; Wikipedia, 2023a ).

A picture taken on March 8, 2014, shows a partial view of the Dimona. (News Photo – Getty Images)

As with other nuclear powers and those seeking to join the club, Israel sought nuclear weapons for strategic, geopolitical purposes, primarily to have a deterrent to attacks from neighboring states. That motivation remains compelling to many other countries, including others in the Middle East. Given its own trajectory, Israel understands better than most how nuclear power technology is a step toward having a bomb.

This is precisely why Israel destroyed nuclear reactors in Syria and Iraq and, together with US help, that damaged nuclear technology that Iran, not surprisingly, argues is for peaceful purposes (Burr & Battle, 2021 ; Farrel, 2018 ; News Wires, 2021 ; The Iran Primer, 2021 ). Inspections in Iran have centered around how highly they are enriching uranium, is it low grade for medical purposes, or high grade for bombs? Seeing through the veil of secrecy to discern which it is, is not so easy. Recently though, it has become apparent that Iran is very close to having the enriched uranium it needs for a weapon.

Many other countries started down the nuclear path before abandoning it. These included South Korea, Taiwan, Argentina, and Brazil. Only South Africa succeeded in developing nuclear weapons before abandoning them. At the core of the South Africa program, billed as developing “peaceful nuclear explosives”, was, as elsewhere, a nuclear reactor, in this case provided by the US (Albright, 2001 ).

Some have claimed that thorium reactors are a solution because this type of reactor is not a threat to proliferation. This is incorrect because thorium is not actually a nuclear fuel since it cannot sustain a nuclear chain reaction. When thorium is mixed with plutonium, our old friend, the resulting “mixed fuel” can sustain a chain reaction thanks to the fissile plutonium. The resulting neutron bombardment converts a portion of the inert thorium into fissile uranium-233. (Gordon, 2023 ).

It should be particularly disturbing to anyone who supports non-proliferation that North Korea, a low-income, economically undeveloped, secretive and isolated country was able to obtain nuclear weapons. North Korea obtained its first, small, research grade reactor from the Soviet Union and subsequently had access to nuclear technology from Pakistan. While the country is shrouded in secrecy, at least some of its weapons use plutonium reprocessed from its nuclear reactors (NTI, 2021 ).

Today, other than North Korea and Iran, active attempts to circumvent non-proliferation are rare. Perhaps that reflects some success at convincing aspiring nations to forgo nuclear weapons or possibly some countries have begun to see the downsides of being a nuclear power. Whatever the reason, there is no certainty that the lull will continue. One wonders whether the possibility of extending nuclear power capacity to Saudi Arabia, an apparent component of negotiations underway as this is written, might open the door to a second nuclear power in the Middle East. (Murphy et al., 2023 ; Wilkins Brett, 2023 ).

It seems that possessing nuclear weapons remains a powerful incentive, especially in the Middle East. Nuclear power is a good cover for obtaining a start on the technology needed to build nuclear weapons. Do we want more and more states, even if they accumulate gradually, to possess these weapons? How many more pairs of enemies, like India and Pakistan, do we want to have staring each other down with nuclear weapons? Doesn’t the risk of nuclear war increase the more enemies the world has in poses of mutually assured destruction?

Summary Points

Nuclear power cannot be disentangled from the potential to develop nuclear weapons.

Pakistan and Israel utilized nuclear reactors to develop nuclear weapons.

Because only a small amount is required to create a weapon, plutonium is a particular concern.

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Brugge, D., Datesman, A. (2024). Nuclear Proliferation. In: Dirty Secrets of Nuclear Power in an Era of Climate Change. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-59595-0_4

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