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An Essay on the Principle of Population

By thomas robert malthus.

There are two versions of Thomas Robert Malthus’s Essay on the Principle of Population . The first, published anonymously in 1798, was so successful that Malthus soon elaborated on it under his real name. * The rewrite, culminating in the sixth edition of 1826, was a scholarly expansion and generalization of the first.Following his success with his work on population, Malthus published often from his economics position on the faculty at the East India College at Haileybury. He was not only respected in his time by contemporaneous intellectuals for his clarity of thought and willingness to focus on the evidence at hand, but he was also an engaging writer capable of presenting logical and mathematical concepts succinctly and clearly. In addition to writing principles texts and articles on timely topics such as the corn laws, he wrote in many venues summarizing his initial works on population, including a summary essay in the Encyclopædia Britannica on population.The first and sixth editions are presented on Econlib in full. Minor corrections of punctuation, obvious spelling errors, and some footnote clarifications are the only substantive changes. * Malthus’s “real name” may have been Thomas Robert Malthus, but a descendent, Nigel Malthus, reports that his family says he did not use the name Thomas and was known to friends and colleagues as Bob. See The Malthus Homepage, a site maintained by Nigel Malthus, a descendent.For more information on Malthus’s life and works, see New School Profiles: Thomas Robert Malthus and The International Society of Malthus. Lauren Landsburg

Editor, Library of Economics and Liberty

First Pub. Date

London: J. Johnson, in St. Paul's Church-yard

1st edition

The text of this edition is in the public domain. Picture of Malthus courtesy of The Warren J. Samuels Portrait Collection at Duke University.

Table of Contents

• Chapter III
• Chapter VII
• Chapter VIII
• Chapter XII
• Chapter XIII
• Chapter XIV
• Chapter XVI
• Chapter XVII
• Chapter XVIII
• Chapter XIX

The following Essay owes its origin to a conversation with a friend, on the subject of Mr. Godwin’s Essay, on avarice and profusion, in his Enquirer. The discussion, started the general question of the future improvement of society; and the Author at first sat down with an intention of merely stating his thoughts to his friend, upon paper, in a clearer manner than he thought he could do in conversation. But as the subject opened upon him, some ideas occurred, which he did not recollect to have met with before; and as he conceived, that every, the least light, on a topic so generally interesting, might be received with candour, he determined to put his thoughts in a form for publication.

The Essay might, undoubtedly, have been rendered much more complete by a collection of a greater number of facts in elucidation of the general argument. But a long and almost total interruption, from very particular business, joined to a desire (perhaps imprudent) of not delaying the publication much beyond the time that he originally proposed, prevented the Author from giving to the subject an undivided attention. He presumes, however, that the facts which he has adduced, will be found, to form no inconsiderable evidence for the truth of his opinion respecting the future improvement of mankind. As the Author contemplates this opinion at present, little more appears to him to be necessary than a plain statement, in addition to the most cursory view of society, to establish it.

It is an obvious truth, which has been taken notice of by many writers, that population must always be kept down to the level of the means of subsistence; but no writer, that the Author recollects, has inquired particularly into the means by which this level is effected: and it is a view of these means, which forms, to his mind, the strongest obstacle in the way to any very great future improvement of society. He hopes it will appear that, in the discussion of this interesting subject, he is actuated solely by a love of truth; and not by any prejudices against any particular set of men, or of opinions. He professes to have read some of the speculations on the future improvement of society, in a temper very different from a wish to find them visionary; but he has not acquired that command over his understanding which would enable him to believe what he wishes, without evidence, or to refuse his assent to what might be unpleasing, when accompanied with evidence.

The view which he has given of human life has a melancholy hue; but he feels conscious, that he has drawn these dark tints, from a conviction that they are really in the picture; and not from a jaundiced eye or an inherent spleen of disposition. The theory of mind which he has sketched in the two last chapters, accounts to his own understanding in a satisfactory manner, for the existence of most of the evils of life; but whether it will have the same effect upon others, must be left to the judgement of his readers.

If he should succeed in drawing the attention of more able men, to what he conceives to be the principal difficulty in the way to the improvement of society, and should, in consequence, see this difficulty removed, even in theory, he will gladly retract his present opinions and rejoice in a conviction of his error.

An Essay on the Principle of Population

The book An Essay on the Principle of Population was first published anonymously in 1798 through J. Johnson (London). The author was soon identified as The Reverend Thomas Robert Malthus. While it was not the first book on population, it has been acknowledged as the most influential work of its era. Its 6th Edition was independently cited as a key influence by both Charles Darwin and Alfred Russel Wallace in developing the theory of natural selection. Warning: template has been deprecated.

PRINCIPLE OF POPULATION ,

AS IT AFFECTS

THE FUTURE IMPROVEMENT OF SOCIETY.

WITH REMARKS

ON THE SPECULATIONS OF MR. GODWIN,

M. CONDORCET,

AND OTHER WRITERS.

PRINTED FOR J. JOHNSON, IN ST. PAUL'S

CHURCHYARD.

The following Essay owes its origin to a conversation with a friend, on the subject of Mr. Godwin's Essay, on avarice and profusion, in his Enquirer. The discussion, started the general question of the future improvement of society; and the Author at first sat down with an intention of merely stating his thoughts to his friend, upon paper, in a clearer manner than he thought he could do, in conversation. But as the subject opened upon him, some ideas occurred, which he did not recollect to have met with before; and as he conceived, that every, the least light, on a topic so generally interesting, might be received with candour, he determined to put his thoughts in a form for publication.

​ The essay might, undoubtedly, have been rendered much more complete by a collection of a greater number of facts in elucidation of the general argument. But a long and almost total interruption, from very particular business, joined to a desire (perhaps imprudent) of not delaying the publication much beyond the time that he originally proposed, prevented the Author from giving to the subject an undivided attention. He presumes, however, that the facts which he has adduced, will be found, to form no inconsiderable evidence for the truth of his opinion respecting the future improvement of mankind. As the Author contemplates this opinion at present, little more appears to him to be necessary than a plain statement, in addition to the most cursory view of society, to establish it.

​ It is an obvious truth, which has been taken notice of by many writers, that population must always be kept down to the level of the means of subsistence; but no writer that the Author recollects, has inquired particularly into the means by which this level is effected: and it is a view of these means, which forms, to his mind, the strongest obstacle in the way to any very great future improvement of society. He hopes it will appear, that, in the discussion of this interesting subject, he is actuated solely by a love of truth; and not by any prejudices against any particular set of men, or of opinions. He professes to have read some of the speculations on the future improvement of society, in a temper very different from a wish to find them visionary; but he has not acquired that command over his understanding which would enable him to believe what ​ he wishes, without evidence, or to refuse his assent to what might be unpleasing, when accompanied with evidence.

The view which he has given of human life has a melancholy hue; but he feels conscious, that he has drawn these dark tints, from a conviction that they are really in the picture; and not from a jaundiced eye, or an inherent spleen of disposition. The theory of mind which he has sketched in the two last chapters, accounts to his own understanding, in a satisfactory manner, for the existence of most of the evils of life; but whether it will have the same effect upon others must be left to the judgement of his readers.

If he should succeed in drawing the attention of more able men, to what he conceives to be the principal difficulty in ​ the way to the improvement of society, and should, in consequence, see this difficulty removed, even in theory, he will gladly retract his present opinions, and rejoice in a conviction of his error.

June 7, 1798.

CHAP. VIII.

CHAP. XIII.

CHAP. XVII.

CHAP. XVIII.

This work was published before January 1, 1929, and is in the public domain worldwide because the author died at least 100 years ago.

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An Essay on the Principle of Population

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Chapters 16-19

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Summary and Study Guide

An Essay on the Principle of Population by Thomas Malthus was first published anonymously in 1798. Its core argument, that human population will inevitably outgrow its capacity to produce food, widely influenced the field of early 19th century economics and social science. Immediately after its first printing, Malthus’s essay garnered significant attention from his contemporaries, and he soon felt the need to reveal his identity. Although it was highly controversial, An Essay on the Principle of Population nevertheless left its impression on foundational 19th century theorists, such as naturalist Charles Darwin and economists Friedrich Engels and Karl Marx. Modern economists have largely dismissed the Malthusian perspective . Principally, they argue Malthus underappreciated the exponential growth brought about by the advent of the Industrial Revolution; by the discovery of new energy sources, such as coal and electricity; and later by further technological innovations. These modern criticisms are easily defended with historical retrospective.

Malthus’s essay has been revised several times since its publication. This summary focuses on the contents of the first edition. In 1806, Malthus revamped his work into four books to further discuss points of contention in the first edition and address many of the criticisms it received. Three more editions followed (published in 1807, 1817, and 1826 respectively), each modifying or clarifying points made in the second version.

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Although Malthus’s basic stance on the unsustainable growth of population to food production remains the same throughout all versions, the most dramatic change in format and content is found between the first and second editions. The first edition is notable for its long and detailed critique of the works of William Godwin, Marquis de Condorcet, and Richard Price on the perfectibility of humankind. Its lack of “hard data” and its unpracticed opinions on sex and reproduction were heavily criticized by his contemporaries. The 1806 publication, written at a later point in Malthus’s life, attempts to address these issues by focusing less on critiquing the works of other theorists and offering better data on the fluctuation of population growth throughout various European countries and colonies (Malthus, Thomas Robert. An Essay on the Principle of Population: the 1803 edition . Yale University Press. 2018).

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An Essay on the Principle of Population begins with a preface and is subsequently separated into eleven chapters. The preface reveals that a conversation with a friend on the future improvement of society was what sparked Malthus’s inspiration for this work. Chapter 1 further credits the works of David Hume, Alfred Russel, Adam Smith, and many others for inspiring his own writing. He postulates that population grows exponentially, whereas food production only increases in a linear fashion. This disparity in power will inevitably lead to overpopulation and an inadequate amount of food for subsistence.

Chapter 2 further details the above premise. Malthus imagines a world of abundance. In such a society of ease and leisure, no one would be anxious about providing for their families, which incentivizes them to marry early, causing birth rates to explode. When there are too many people and too little an increase in food to support them, the lower classes will be plunged into a state of misery. Thus, Malthus concludes that population growth only happens when there is an increase in subsistence, and misery and vice keep the world from overpopulation.

In chapters 3, 4, and 5, Malthus applies his theory to different stages of society. He argues that “savage” and shepherding societies never grow as fast as their “civilized” counterparts because various miseries keep their numbers in check. Among “savage” societies, a lack of food and a general disrespect of personal liberties prevent their numbers from increasing rapidly. Shepherding communities, meanwhile, often wage war over territories and suffer a high mortality rate. Civilized societies grew rapidly after adopting the practice of tilling, but due to exhausting most fertile land, their numbers no longer increase at the same rate as before.

The following two chapters are notable because they are the only ones that contain hard data. Malthus cites philosopher Richard Price for his analysis of population in America and references demographer Johann Peter Süssmilch for his work on Prussia. Malthus uses both these examples to prove that population fluctuates in accordance with the quantity of food produced. Chapters 8 and 9 are dedicated to critiquing mathematician Marquis de Condorcet’s work while chapters 10 to 15 do the same for political philosopher William Godwin. Malthus rejects the idea of mankind as infinitely perfectible and dismisses charity as a method to relieve poverty.

Chapters 16 and 17 propose the increase of food production as the only solution to reduce extreme poverty and misery among the lower class. Malthus maintains that donating funds is but a temporary relief to aid the most unfortunate; only a permanent increase in agricultural yield can grow the lower class’s purchasing power. Nevertheless, the final two chapters remind readers that misery and happiness must coexist. The law of nature, the way of living intended by God and demonstrated by Malthus’s population theory, requires both wealth and poverty to function.

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Thomas Malthus

An Essay on the Principle of Population (1798, 1807)

THE GREAT AND UNLOOKED FOR DISCOVERIES that have taken place of late years in natural philosophy, the increasing diffusion of general knowledge from the extension of the art of printing, the ardent and unshackled spirit of inquiry that prevails throughout the lettered and even unlettered world, the new and extraordinary lights that have been thrown on political subjects which dazzle and astonish the understanding, and particularly that tremendous phenomenon in the political horizon, the French Revolution, which, like a blazing comet, seems destined either to inspire with fresh life and vigour , or to scorch up and destroy the shrinking inhabitants of the earth, have all concurred to lead many able men into the opinion that we were touching on a period big with the most important changes, changes that would in some measure be decisive of the future fate of mankind.

It has been said that the great question is now at issue, whether man shall henceforth start forwards with accelerated velocity towards illimitable, and hitherto unconceived improvement, or be condemned to a perpetual oscillation between happiness and misery, and after every effort remain still at an immeasurable distance from the wished-for goal….

               I have read some of the speculations on the perfectibility of man and of society with great pleasure. I have been warmed and delighted with the enchanting picture which they hold forth. I ardently wish for

such happy improvements. But I see great, and, to my understanding, unconquerable difficulties in the way to them. These difficulties it is my present purpose to state, declaring, at the same time, that so far from exulting in them, as a cause of triumph over the friends of innovation, nothing would give me greater pleasure than to see them completely removed….

               I think I may fairly make two postulata .

First, That food is necessary to the existence of man.

Secondly, That the passion between the sexes is necessary and will remain nearly in its present state.

These two laws, ever since we have had any knowledge of mankind, appear to have been fixed laws of our nature, and, as we have not hitherto seen any alteration in them, we have no right to conclude that they will ever cease to be what they now are, without an immediate act of power in that Being who first arranged the system of the universe, and for the advantage of his creatures, still executes, according to fixed laws, all its various operations….

Assuming then my postulata as granted, I say, that the power of population is indefinitely greater than the power in the earth to produce subsistence for man.

Population, when unchecked, increases in a geometrical ratio. Subsistence increases only in an arithmetical ratio. A slight acquaintance with numbers will shew the immensity of the first power in comparison of the second.

By that law of our nature which makes food necessary to the life of man, the effects of these two unequal powers must be kept equal.

This implies a strong and constantly operating check on population from the difficulty of subsistence. This difficulty must fall somewhere and must necessarily be severely felt by a large portion of mankind.

Through the animal and vegetable kingdoms, nature has scattered the seeds of life abroad with the most profuse and liberal hand. She has been comparatively sparing in the room and the nourishment necessary to rear them. The germs of existence contained in this spot of earth, with ample food, and ample room to expand in, would fill millions of worlds in the course of a few thousand years. Necessity, that imperious all pervading law of nature, restrains them within the prescribed bounds. The race of plants and the race of animals shrink under this great restrictive law. And the race of man cannot, by any efforts of reason, escape from it. Among plants and animals its effects are waste of seed, sickness, and premature death. Among mankind, misery and vice. The former, misery, is an absolutely necessary consequence of it. Vice is a highly probable consequence, and we therefore see it abundantly prevail, but it ought not, perhaps, to be called an absolutely necessary consequence. The ordeal of virtue is to resist all temptation to evil.

This natural inequality of the two powers of population and of production in the earth, and that great law of our nature which must constantly keep their effects equal, form the great difficulty that to me appears insurmountable in the way to the perfectibility of society. All other arguments are of slight and subordinate consideration in comparison of this. I see no way by which man can escape from the weight of this law which pervades all animated nature. No fancied equality, no agrarian regulations in their utmost extent, could remove the pressure of it even for a single century. And it appears, therefore, to be decisive against the possible existence of a society, all the members of which should live in ease, happiness, and comparative leisure; and feel no anxiety about providing the means of subsistence for themselves and families.

Consequently, if the premises are just, the argument is conclusive against the perfectibility of the mass of mankind….

The ultimate check to population appears then to be a want of food, arising necessarily from the different ratios according to which population and food increase. But this ultimate check is never the immediate check, except in cases of actual famine.

The immediate check may be stated to consist in all those customs, and all those diseases, which seem to be generated by a scarcity of the means of subsistence; and all those causes, independent of this scarcity, whether of a moral or physical nature, which tend prematurely to weaken and destroy the human frame.

These checks to population, which are constantly operating with more or less force in every society, and keep down the number to the level of the means of subsistence, may be classed under two general heads—the preventive, and the positive checks.

The preventive check, as far as it is voluntary, is peculiar to man, and arises from that distinctive superiority in his reasoning faculties, which enables him to calculate distant consequences. The checks to the indefinite increase of plants and irrational animals are all either positive, or, if preventive, involuntary. But man cannot look around him, and see the distress which frequently presses upon those who have large families; he cannot contemplate his present possessions or earnings, which he now nearly consumes himself, and calculate the amount of each share, when with very little addition they must be divided, perhaps, among seven or eight, without feeling a doubt whether, if he follow the bent of his inclinations, he may be able to support the offspring which he will probably bring into the world….

If this restraint do[ es ] not produce vice, it is undoubtedly the least evil that can arise from the principle of population….

When this restraint produces vice, the evils which follow are but too conspicuous. A promiscuous intercourse to such a degree as to prevent the birth of children, seems to lower, in the most marked manner, the dignity of human nature. It cannot be without its effect on men, and nothing can be more obvious than its tendency to degrade the female character, and to destroy all its most amiable and distinguishing characteristics. Add to which, that among those unfortunate females, with which all great towns abound, more real distress and aggravated misery are, perhaps, to be found, than in any other department of human life….

The positive checks to population are extremely various, and include every cause, whether arising from vice or misery, which in any degree contributes to shorten the natural duration of human life. Under this head, therefore, may be enumerated all unwholesome occupations, severe labour and exposure to the seasons, extreme poverty, bad nursing of children, great towns, excesses of all kinds, the whole train of common diseases and epidemics, wars, plague, and famine.

In every country some of these checks are, with more or less force, in constant operation; yet, notwithstanding their general prevalence, there are few states in which there is not a constant effort in the population to increase beyond the means of subsistence. This constant effort as constantly tends to subject the lower classes of society to distress, and to prevent any great permanent melioration of their condition.

These effects, in the present state of society, seem to be produced in the following manner. We will suppose the means of subsistence in any country just equal to the easy support of its inhabitants. The constant effort towards population, which is found to act even in the most vicious societies, increases the number of people before the means of subsistence are increased. The food, therefore, which before supported eleven millions, must now be divided among eleven millions and a half. The poor consequently must live much worse, and many of them be reduced to severe distress. The number of labourers also being above the proportion of work in the market, the price of labour must tend to fall, while the price of provisions would at the same time tend to rise. The labourer therefore must do more work, to earn the same as he did before. During this season of distress, the discouragements to marriage and the difficulty of rearing a family are so great, that the progress of population is retarded. In the mean time , the cheapness, of labour , the plenty of labourers , and the necessity of an increased industry among them, encourage cultivators to employ more labour upon their land, to turn up fresh soil, and to manure and improve more completely what is already in tillage, till ultimately the means of subsistence may become in the same proportion to the population, as at the period from which we set out. The situation of the labourer being then again tolerably comfortable, the restraints to population are in some degree loosened; and, after a short period, the same retrograde and progressive movements, with respect to happiness, are repeated….

To remedy the frequent distresses of the poor, laws to enforce their relief have been instituted; and in the establishment of a general system of this kind England has particularly distinguished herself. But it is to be feared, that, though it may have alleviated a little the intensity of individual misfortune, it has spread the evil over a larger surface.

It is a subject often started in conversation, and mentioned always as a matter of great surprise, that, notwithstanding the immense sum which is annually collected for the poor in this country, there is still so much distress among them. Some think that the money must be embezzled for private use; others, that the churchwardens and overseers consume the greatest part of it in feasting. All agree, that somehow or other it must be very ill managed. In short, the fact, that even before the late scarcities three millions were collected annually for the poor, and yet that their distresses were not removed, is the subject of continual astonishment. But a man who looks a little below the surface of things would he much more astonished, if the fact were otherwise than it is observed to be; or even if a collection universally of eighteen shillings in the pound, instead of four, were materially to alter it.

Suppose, that by a subscription of the rich the eighteen pence or two shillings, which men earn now, were made up five shillings: it might be imagined, perhaps, that they would then be able to live comfortably, and have a piece of meat every day for their dinner. But this would be a very false conclusion. The transfer of three additional shillings a day to each laborer would not increase the quantity of meat in the country. There is not at present enough for all to have a moderate share. What would then be the consequence? The competition among the buyers in the market of meat would rapidly raise the price from eight pence or nine pence to two or three shillings in the pound, and the commodity would not be divided among many more than it is at present….

It might be said, perhaps, that the increased number of purchasers in every article would give a spur to productive industry, and that the whole produce of the island would be increased. But the spur that these fancied riches would give to population would more than counter-balance it; and the increased produce would have to be divided among a more than proportionably increased number of people.

A collection from the rich of eighteen shillings in the pound, even if distributed in the most judicious manner, would have an effect similar to that resulting from the supposition which I have just made; and no possible sacrifices of the rich, particularly in money, could for any time prevent the recurrence of distress among the lower members of society, whoever they were. Great changes might indeed be made. The rich might become poor, and some of the poor rich: but while the present proportion between population and food continues, a part of the society must necessarily find it difficult to support a family, and this difficulty will naturally fall on the least fortunate members.

And it does not seem entirely visionary to suppose that, if the true and permanent cause of poverty were clearly explained and forcibly brought home to each man's bosom, it would have some, and perhaps not an inconsiderable influence on his conduct; at least the experiment has never yet been fairly tried. Almost every thing , that has been hitherto done for the poor, has tended, as if with solicitous care, to throw a veil of obscurity over this subject, and to hide from them the true cause of their poverty. When the wages of labour are hardly sufficient to maintain two children, a man marries, and has five or six; he of course finds himself miserably distressed. He accuses the insufficiency of the price of labour to maintain a family. He accuses his parish for their tardy and sparing fulfilment of their obligation to assist him. He accuses the avarice of the rich, who suffer him to want what they can so well spare. He accuses the partial and unjust institutions of society, which have awarded him an inadequate share of the produce of the earth. He accuses perhaps the dispensations of Providence, which have assigned to him a place in society so beset with unavoidable distress and dependence. In searching for objects of accusation, he never adverts to the quarter from which his misfortunes originate. The last person that he would think of accusing is himself, on whom in fact the principal blame lies, except so far as he has been deceived by the higher classes of society….

We are not however to relax our efforts in increasing the quantity of provisions, but to combine another effort with it; that of keeping the population, when once it has been overtaken, at such a distance behind, as to effect the relative proportion which we desire; and thus unite the two grind desiderata, a great actual population, and a state of society, in which abject poverty and dependence are comparatively but little known; two objects which are far from being incompatible.

If we be really serious in what appears to be the object of such general research, the mode of essentially and permanently bettering the condition of the poor, we must explain to them the true nature of their situation, and shew them, that the withholding of the supplies of labour is the only possible way of really raising its price, and that they themselves, being the possessors of this commodity, have alone the power to do this.

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An Essay on the Principle of Population

The 1803 Edition

by Thomas Robert Malthus

Edited by Shannon C. Stimson

Series: Rethinking the Western Tradition

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Thomas Robert Malthus (1766–1834) was an English cleric and scholar. Shannon C. Stimson holds the Leavey Chair in the Foundations of American Freedom at Georgetown University. Her books include After Adam Smith: A Century of Transformation in Politics and Political Economy , Ricardian Politics , both with Murray Milgate, and The American Revolution in the Law .

“This affordable version represents significant added value, not only by providing a crisp readable text, but by its inclusion of five interpretive essays.”—Choice “This new edition fills a real gap and makes available a text of pivotal significance in nineteenth and twentieth century intellectual history. The ancillary essays make this a very useful edition for students and scholars alike.”—Robert Mayhew, author of Malthus: The Life and Legacies of an Untimely Prophet  

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Part of: An Essay on the Principle of Population, 2 vols. [1826, 6th ed.] An Essay on the Principle of Population, vol. 1 [1826, 6th ed.]

• Thomas Robert Malthus (author)

Vol. 1 of the 6th expanded edition of Essay on the Principle of Population. In this work Malthus argues that there is a disparity between the rate of growth of population (which increases geometrically) and the rate of growth of agriculture (which increases only arithmetically). He then explores how populations have historically been kept in check.

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An Essay on the Principle of Population, or a View of its Past and Present Effects on Human Happiness; with an Inquiry into our Prospects respecting the Future Removal or Mitigation of the Evils which it Occasions (London: John Murray 1826). 6th ed.

The text is in the public domain.

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Critical Responses

William Godwin

A lengthy and belated reply to Malthus by the radical individualist Godwin. Whereas Malthus took a pessimistic view of the pressures of population growth, Godwin was more optimistic about the capacity of people to limit the growth of their families.

Morgan Rose

Malthus had no objection to the idea that wealth derived from manufacturing production could, subject to certain hindrances, be exchanged to increase the amount of food available. He seems only to have misjudged the degree to which those hindrances would be reduced over time. He did not recognize…

Paul Romer, Stanford University professor and Hoover Institution Senior Fellow talks with EconTalk host Russ Roberts about growth, China, innovation, and the role of human capital. Also discussed are ideas in creating growth, the idea that ideas allow for increasing returns, and intellectual…

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While many liberty-loving economists are happy to correct the criticisms of Smith, many are equally happy to criticize Malthus for the Malthusian trap, not realizing that the usual portrayal of Malthus is equally false. Malthus shares far more with Smith than most expect. He is, in many ways, as…

• An Essay on the Principle of Population Summary

by Thomas Malthus

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Malthus observes that humans tend to like having sex, which means that inevitably (especially before modern contraceptives) humans would likely continue to make children at a constant rate. But since two people can have more than two children, and each of those children can have even more children, population growth is not arithmetical, but rather geometric.

What Malthus means by 'arithmetical' and 'geometric' is simply that some systems produce at the level of addition and subtraction, and other systems work differently. If it works by process of addition, it is arithmetical, and if it works by process of multiplication, such as population growth, it is geometric.

So Malthus concludes from that basic study of the systems of population growth that we can expect the population to double every 25 years. By the way, Malthus's mathematical analysis is understood by most people to be incorrect, but his idea is still powerful. Could humans populate at such a rate that eventually, we exhaust our resources, and what would happen if that were the case?

He then explains that he is not predicting a doomsday, or an apocalypse, but rather, that given our understanding of mathematics, humans should begin to consider their effect on the environment as an exponentially powerful animal, since our biological existence means that we must sustain ourselves by using natural resources.

Malthus continues by explaining that many of the variables in the sustainability question are fluid, such as the potential development of new technologies to advance agriculture and infrastructure. Instead of offering a creative solution, he leaves the question open for audience participation, because after all, we're all on the same planet, so overpopulation is a risk that could potentially effect the entire race if not treated with scientific attention.

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Malthus, Thomas - An Essay on the Principal of Population (1798)

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An Essay on the Principle of Population

The book An Essay on the Principle of Population was first published anonymously in 1798, [1] but the author was soon identified as Thomas Robert Malthus . The book warned of future difficulties, on an interpretation of the population increasing in geometric progression (so as to double every 25 years) [2] while food production increased in an arithmetic progression , which would leave a difference resulting in the want of food and famine, unless birth rates decreased. [2]

Proposed solutions

On religion, theory of mind, demographics, wages, and inflation, editions and versions, 1st edition, 2nd to 6th editions, a summary view, other works that influenced malthus, reception, criticism, and legacy of essay, early influence, early responses in the malthusian controversy, marxist opposition, later responses, social theory, later parallels, external links.

While it was not the first book on population, Malthus's book fuelled debate about the size of the population in Britain and contributed to the passing of the Census Act 1800 . This Act enabled the holding of a national census in England, Wales and Scotland, starting in 1801 and continuing every ten years to the present. The book's 6th edition (1826) was independently cited as a key influence by both Charles Darwin and Alfred Russel Wallace in developing the theory of natural selection .

A key portion of the book was dedicated to what is now known as the Malthusian Law of Population . The theory claims that growing population rates contribute to a rising supply of labour and inevitably lowers wages. In essence, Malthus feared that continued population growth lends itself to poverty.

In 1803, Malthus published, under the same title, a heavily revised second edition of his work. [3] His final version, the 6th edition, was published in 1826. In 1830, 32 years after the first edition, Malthus published a condensed version entitled A Summary View on the Principle of Population , which included responses to criticisms of the larger work.

Between 1798 and 1826 Malthus published six editions of his famous treatise, updating each edition to incorporate new material, to address criticism, and to convey changes in his own perspectives on the subject. He wrote the original text in reaction to the optimism of his father and his father's associates (notably Rousseau) regarding the future improvement of society. Malthus also constructed his case as a specific response to writings of William Godwin (1756–1836) and of the Marquis de Condorcet (1743–1794).

Malthus regarded ideals of future improvement in the lot of humanity with scepticism, considering that throughout history a segment of every human population seemed relegated to poverty. He explained this phenomenon by arguing that population growth generally expanded in times and in regions of plenty until a relatively large size of population, relative to a more modest supply of primary resources, caused distress:

"Yet in all societies, even those that are most vicious, the tendency to a virtuous attachment [i.e., marriage] is so strong, that there is a constant effort towards an increase of population. This constant effort as constantly tends to subject the lower classes of the society to distress and to prevent any great permanent amelioration of their condition". —   Malthus T.R. 1798. An Essay on the Principle of Population. Chapter II. [4]

The way in which these effects are produced seems to be this. We will suppose the means of subsistence in any country just equal to the easy support of its inhabitants. The constant effort towards population... increases the number of people before the means of subsistence are increased. The food therefore which before supported seven millions must now be divided among seven millions and a half or eight millions. The poor consequently must live much worse, and many of them be reduced to severe distress. The number of labourers also being above the proportion of the work in the market, the price of labour must tend toward a decrease, while the price of provisions would at the same time tend to rise. The labourer therefore must work harder to earn the same as he did before. During this season of distress, the discouragements to marriage, and the difficulty of rearing a family are so great that population is at a stand. In the mean time the cheapness of labour, the plenty of labourers, and the necessity of an increased industry amongst them, encourage cultivators to employ more labour upon their land, to turn up fresh soil, and to manure and improve more completely what is already in tillage, till ultimately the means of subsistence become in the same proportion to the population as at the period from which we set out. The situation of the labourer being then again tolerably comfortable, the restraints to population are in some degree loosened, and the same retrograde and progressive movements with respect to happiness are repeated. —   Malthus T.R. 1798. An Essay on the Principle of Population . Chapter II, p. 19 in Oxford World's Classics reprint.

Malthus also saw that societies through history had experienced at one time or another epidemics, famines, or wars: events that masked the fundamental problem of populations overstretching their resource limitations:

The power of population is so superior to the power of the earth to produce subsistence for man, that premature death must in some shape or other visit the human race. The vices of mankind are active and able ministers of depopulation. They are the precursors in the great army of destruction, and often finish the dreadful work themselves. But should they fail in this war of extermination, sickly seasons, epidemics, pestilence, and plague advance in terrific array, and sweep off their thousands and tens of thousands. Should success be still incomplete, gigantic inevitable famine stalks in the rear, and with one mighty blow levels the population with the food of the world. —   Malthus T.R. 1798. An Essay on the Principle of Population . Chapter VII, p. 44 in Oxford World's Classics reprint.

The rapid increase in the global population of the past century exemplifies Malthus's predicted population patterns; it also appears to describe socio-demographic dynamics of complex pre-industrial societies . These findings are the basis for neo-Malthusian modern mathematical models of long-term historical dynamics . [5]

Malthus argued that two types of checks hold population within resource limits: The first, or preventive check to lower birth rates and The second, or positive check to permit higher mortality rates. This second check "represses an increase which is already begun" but by being "confined chiefly, though not perhaps solely, to the lowest orders of society". The preventive checks could involve birth control, postponement of marriage, and celibacy while the positive checks could involve hunger, disease and war. [6]

Malthus highlighted the difference between governmentally instituted welfare and privately supported benevolence and proposed a gradual abolition of poor laws which he thought would be accompanied by a mitigation of the circumstances within which people would need relief and by privately supported benevolence supporting those in distress. [7] He reasoned that poor relief acted against the longer-term interests of the poor by raising the price of commodities and undermining the independence and resilience of the peasant. [ citation needed ] In other words, the poor laws tended to " create the poor which they maintain ." [8]

It offended Malthus that critics claimed he lacked a caring attitude toward the situation of the poor. In the 1798 edition his concern for the poor shows in passages such as the following:

Nothing is so common as to hear of encouragements that ought to be given to population. If the tendency of mankind to increase be so great as I have represented it to be, it may appear strange that this increase does not come when it is thus repeatedly called for. The true reason is, that the demand for a greater population is made without preparing the funds necessary to support it. Increase the demand for agricultural labour by promoting cultivation, and with it consequently increase the produce of the country, and ameliorate the condition of the labourer, and no apprehensions whatever need be entertained of the proportional increase of population. An attempt to effect this purpose in any other way is vicious, cruel, and tyrannical, and in any state of tolerable freedom cannot therefore succeed.

In an addition to the 1817 edition he wrote:

I have written a chapter expressly on the practical direction of our charity; and in detached passages elsewhere have paid a just tribute to the exalted virtue of benevolence. To those who have read these parts of my work, and have attended to the general tone and spirit of the whole, I willingly appeal, if they are but tolerably candid, against these charges ... which intimate that I would root out the virtues of charity and benevolence without regard to the exaltation which they bestow on the moral dignity of our nature... [9]

Some, such as William Farr [10] and Karl Marx , [11] argued that Malthus did not fully recognize the human capacity to increase food supply. On this subject, however, Malthus had written: "The main peculiarity which distinguishes man from other animals, in the means of his support, is the power which he possesses of very greatly increasing these means." [12]

He also commented on the notion that Francis Galton later called eugenics :

"It does not... by any means seem impossible that by an attention to breed, a certain degree of improvement, similar to that among animals, might take place among men. Whether intellect could be communicated may be a matter of doubt; but size, strength, beauty, complexion, and perhaps longevity are in a degree transmissible... As the human race, however, could not be improved in this way without condemning all the bad specimens to celibacy, it is not probable that an attention to breed should ever become general". —   Malthus T.R. 1798. An Essay on the Principle of Population . Chapter IX, p. 72 in Oxford World's Classics reprint.

As a Christian and a clergyman, Malthus addressed the question of how an omnipotent and caring God could permit suffering. In the First Edition of his Essay (1798) Malthus reasoned that the constant threat of poverty and starvation served to teach the virtues of hard work and virtuous behaviour. [13] "Had population and food increased in the same ratio, it is probable that man might never have emerged from the savage state," [14] he wrote, adding further, "Evil exists in the world not to create despair, but activity." [15] Similarly, Malthus believed that "the infinite variety of nature...is admirably adapted to further the high purpose of the creation and to produce the greatest possible quantity of good." [16]

Nevertheless, although the threat of poverty could be understood to be a prod to motivate human industry, it was not God's will that man should suffer. Malthus wrote that mankind itself was solely to blame for human suffering:

I believe that it is the intention of the Creator that the earth should be replenished; but certainly with a healthy, virtuous and happy population, not an unhealthy, vicious and miserable one. And if, in endeavouring to obey the command to increase and multiply, [17] we people it only with beings of this latter description and suffer accordingly, we have no right to impeach the justice of the command, but our irrational mode of executing it. [18]

Malthus referred to the last two chapters of the Essay (1798) as his "theory of mind". [19] These chapters contain a sophisticated - and heterodox - theory of mind, in which Malthus advocated for a naturalized conception of humans and mind. [20] For Malthus mind arose out of matter and he emphasized this throughout the Essay , employing the phrases "matter into mind" and "mind out of matter" throughout. [21] Bodily sensations power the whole mental apparatus, compelling the body into action:

The first great awakeners of the mind seem to be the wants of the body [...] They are the first stimulants that rouse the brain of infant man into sentient activity, and such seems to be the sluggishness of original matter that unless by a peculiar course of excitements other wants, equally powerful, are generated, these stimulants seem, even afterwards, to be necessary to continue that activity which they first awakened. [22]

Malthus's theory of mind, therefore, posited that "matter is formed into mind by the impressions and stimulations of nature upon the body and the ensuing perpetual struggle to avoid pain and pleasure". [20] This naturalized conception of mind was omitted from all subsequent editions which was most likely due to the fact that Malthus's theory of mind was singled out for critique.

Malthus wrote of the relationship between population, real wages, and inflation. When the population of laborers grows faster than the production of food, real wages fall because the growing population causes the cost of living (i.e., the cost of food) to go up. Difficulties of raising a family eventually reduce the rate of population growth, until the falling population again leads to higher real wages:

A circumstance which has, perhaps, more than any other, contributed to conceal this oscillation from common view, is the difference between the nominal and real price of labour. It very rarely happens that the nominal price of labour universally falls; but we well know that it frequently remains the same, while the nominal price of provisions has been gradually rising. This, indeed, will generally be the case, if the increase of manufactures and commerce be sufficient to employ the new labourers that are thrown into the market, and to prevent the increased supply from lowering the money-price. But an increased number of labourers receiving the same money-wages will necessarily, by their competition, increase the money-price of corn. This is, in fact, a real fall in the price of labour; and, during this period, the condition of the lower classes of the community must be gradually growing worse. But the farmers and capitalists are growing rich from the real cheapness of labour. Their increasing capitals enable them to employ a greater number of men; and, as the population had probably suffered some check from the greater difficulty of supporting a family, the demand for labour, after a certain period, would be great in proportion to the supply, and its price would of course rise, if left to find its natural level; and thus the wages of labour, and consequently the condition of the lower classes of society, might have progressive and retrograde movements, though the price of labour might never nominally fall. [23]

In later editions of his essay, Malthus clarified his view that if society relied on human misery to limit population growth, then sources of misery (e.g., hunger, disease, and war, termed by Malthus "positive checks on population") would inevitably afflict society, as would volatile economic cycles. On the other hand, "preventive checks" to population that limited birthrates, such as later marriages, could ensure a higher standard of living for all, while also increasing economic stability. [24]

• 1798: An Essay on the Principle of Population, as it affects the future improvement of society with remarks on the speculations of Mr. Godwin, M. Condorcet, and other writers. . Anonymously published.
• 1803: Second and much enlarged edition: An Essay on the Principle of Population; or, a view of its past and present effects on human happiness; with an enquiry into our prospects respecting the future removal or mitigation of the evils which it occasions . Authorship acknowledged.
• 1806, 1807, 1817 and 1826: editions 3–6, with relatively minor changes from the second edition.
• 1823: Malthus contributed the article on Population to the supplement of the Encyclopædia Britannica .
• 1830: Malthus had a long extract from the 1823 article reprinted as A summary view of the Principle of Population . [25]

The full title of the first edition of Malthus' essay was "An Essay on the Principle of Population, as it affects the Future Improvement of Society with remarks on the Speculations of Mr. Godwin, M. Condorcet, and Other Writers." The speculations and other writers are explained below.

William Godwin had published his utopian work Enquiry concerning Political Justice in 1793, with later editions in 1796 and 1798. Also, Of Avarice and Profusion (1797). Malthus' remarks on Godwin's work spans chapters 10 through 15 (inclusive) out of nineteen. Godwin responded with Of Population (1820).

The Marquis de Condorcet had published his utopian vision of social progress and the perfectibility of man Esquisse d'un Tableau Historique des Progres de l'Espirit Humain ( Sketch for a Historical Picture of the Progress of the Human Mind ) in 1794. Malthus' remarks on Condorcet's work spans chapters 8 and 9.

Malthus' essay was in response to these utopian visions, as he argued:

This natural inequality of the two powers, of population, and of production of the earth, and that great law of our nature which must constantly keep their effects equal, form the great difficulty that appears to me insurmountable in the way to the perfectibility of society.

The "other writers" included Robert Wallace, Adam Smith , Richard Price , and David Hume .

Malthus himself claimed:

The only authors from whose writings I had deduced the principle, which formed the main argument of the Essay, were Hume, Wallace, Adam Smith, and Dr. Price...

Chapters 1 and 2 outline Malthus' Principle of Population, and the unequal nature of food supply to population growth. The exponential nature of population growth is today known as the Malthusian growth model . This aspect of Malthus' Principle of Population, together with his assertion that food supply was subject to a linear growth model, would remain unchanged in future editions of his essay. Note that Malthus actually used the terms geometric and arithmetic , respectively.

Chapter 3 examines the overrun of the Roman empire by barbarians, due to population pressure. War as a check on population is examined.

Chapter 4 examines the current state of populousness of civilized nations (particularly Europe). Malthus criticises David Hume for a "probable error" in his "criteria that he proposes as assisting in an estimate of population."

Chapter 5 examines The Poor Laws of Pitt the Younger .

Chapter 6 examines the rapid growth of new colonies such as the former Thirteen Colonies of the United States of America .

Chapter 7 examines checks on population such as pestilence and famine .

Chapter 8 also examines a "probable error" by Wallace "that the difficulty arising from population is at a great distance."

Chapters 16 and 17 examine the causes of the wealth of states, including criticisms of Adam Smith and Richard Price. English wealth is compared with Chinese poverty.

Chapters 18 and 19 set out a theodicy to explain the problem of evil in terms of natural theology . This views the world as "a mighty process for awakening matter" in which the Supreme Being acting "according to general laws" created "wants of the body" as "necessary to create exertion" which forms "the reasoning faculty". In this way, the principle of population would "tend rather to promote, than impede the general purpose of Providence."

The 1st edition influenced writers of natural theology such as William Paley and Thomas Chalmers .

Following both widespread praise and criticism of his essay, Malthus revised his arguments and recognized other influences: [ citation needed ]

In the course of this enquiry I found that much more had been done than I had been aware of, when I first published the Essay. The poverty and misery arising from a too rapid increase of population had been distinctly seen, and the most violent remedies proposed, so long ago as the times of Plato and Aristotle. And of late years the subject has been treated in such a manner by some of the French Economists; occasionally by Montesquieu, and, among our own writers, by Dr. Franklin, Sir James Stewart, Mr. Arthur Young, and Mr. Townsend, as to create a natural surprise that it had not excited more of the public attention.

The 2nd edition, published in 1803 (with Malthus now clearly identified as the author), was entitled " An Essay on the Principle of Population; or, a View of its Past and Present Effects on Human Happiness; with an enquiry into our Prospects respecting the Future Removal or Mitigation of the Evils which it occasions ."

Malthus advised that the 2nd edition "may be considered as a new work", [ citation needed ] and the subsequent editions were all minor revisions of the 2nd edition. These were published in 1806, 1807, 1817, and 1826.

By far the biggest change was in how the 2nd to 6th editions of the essay were structured, and the most copious and detailed evidence that Malthus presented, more than any previous such book on population. Essentially, for the first time, Malthus examined his own Principle of Population on a region-by-region basis of world population . The essay was organized in four books:

• Book I – Of the Checks to Population in the Less Civilized Parts of the World and in Past Times.
• Book II – Of the Checks To Population in the Different States of Modern Europe.
• Book III – Of the different Systems or Expedients which have been proposed or have prevailed in Society, as They affect the Evils arising from the Principle of Population.
• Book IV – Of our future Prospects respecting the Removal or Mitigation of the Evils arising from the Principle of Population.

Due in part to the highly influential nature of Malthus' work (see main article Thomas Malthus ), this approach is regarded as pivotal in establishing the field of demography and even to him being regarded as its founding father. [26]

The following controversial quote appears in the second edition: [ citation needed ]

A man who is born into a world already possessed, if he cannot get subsistence from his parents on whom he has a just demand, and if the society do not want his labour, has no claim of right to the smallest portion of food, and, in fact, has no business to be where he is. At nature's mighty feast there is no vacant cover for him. She tells him to be gone, and will quickly execute her own orders, if he does not work upon the compassion of some of her guests. If these guests get up and make room for him, other intruders immediately appear demanding the same favour. The report of a provision for all that come, fills the hall with numerous claimants. The order and harmony of the feast is disturbed, the plenty that before reigned is changed into scarcity; and the happiness of the guests is destroyed by the spectacle of misery and dependence in every part of the hall, and by the clamorous importunity of those, who are justly enraged at not finding the provision which they had been taught to expect. The guests learn too late their error, in counter-acting those strict orders to all intruders, issued by the great mistress of the feast, who, wishing that all guests should have plenty, and knowing she could not provide for unlimited numbers, humanely refused to admit fresh comers when her table was already full.

Ecologist Professor Garrett Hardin claims that the preceding passage inspired hostile reactions from many critics. The offending passage of Malthus' essay appeared in the 2nd edition only, as Malthus felt obliged to remove it. [27]

From the 2nd edition onwards – in Book IV – Malthus advocated moral restraint as an additional, and voluntary, check on population. This included such measures as sexual abstinence and late marriage.

As noted by Professor Robert M. Young, Malthus dropped his chapters on natural theology from the 2nd edition onwards. Also, the essay became less of a personal response to Godwin and Condorcet.

A Summary View on the Principle of Population was published in 1830. The author was identified as Rev. T.R. Malthus, A.M., F.R.S. Malthus wrote A Summary View for those who did not have the leisure to read the full essay and, as he put it, "to correct some of the misrepresentations which have gone abroad respecting two or three of the most important points of the Essay". [28]

A Summary View ends with a defense of the Principle of Population against the charge that it "impeaches the goodness of the Deity, and is inconsistent with the letter and spirit of the scriptures".

Malthus died in 1834 leaving this as his final word on the Principle of Population .

• Observations Concerning the Increase of Mankind, Peopling of Countries, etc. (1751) by Benjamin Franklin (1706–1790)
• Of the Populousness of Ancient Nations (1752) – David Hume (1711–76)
• A Dissertation on the Numbers of Mankind in Ancient and Modern Times (1753), Characteristics of the Present State of Great Britain (1758), and Various Prospects of Mankind, Nature and Providence (1761) – Robert Wallace (1697–1771)
• An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations (1776) – Adam Smith (1723–90)
• Essay on the Population of England from the Revolution to Present Time (1780), Evidence for a Future Period in the State of Mankind, with the Means and Duty of Promoting it (1787) – Richard Price (1723–1791).

Malthus became subject to extreme personal criticism. People who knew nothing about his private life criticised him both for having no children and for having too many. In 1819, Shelley , berating Malthus as a priest, called him "a eunuch and a tyrant". [29] Marx repeated the idea, adding that Malthus had taken the vow of celibacy, and called him "superficial", "a professional plagiarist", "the agent of the landed aristocracy", "a paid advocate" and "the principal enemy of the people". [30]

In the 20th century an editor of the Everyman edition of Malthus claimed that Malthus had practised population control by begetting eleven girls. [31] In fact, Malthus fathered two daughters and one son. Garrett Hardin provides an overview of such personal comments. [27]

The position held by Malthus as professor at the Haileybury training college, to his death in 1834, gave his theories some influence over Company rule in India . [32] According to Peterson, William Pitt the Younger (in office: 1783–1801 and 1804–1806), on reading the work of Malthus, withdrew a Bill he had introduced that called for the extension of Poor Relief . Concerns about Malthus's theory helped promote the idea of a national population census in the UK. Government official John Rickman became instrumental in the carrying out of the first modern British census in 1801, under Pitt's administration. In the 1830s Malthus's writings strongly influenced Whig reforms which overturned Tory paternalism and brought in the Poor Law Amendment Act of 1834.

Malthus convinced most economists that even while high fertility might increase the gross output , it tended to reduce output per capita . David Ricardo and Alfred Marshall admired Malthus, and so came under his influence. Early converts to his population theory included William Paley . Despite Malthus's opposition to contraception , his work exercised a strong influence on Francis Place (1771–1854), whose neo-Malthusian movement became the first to advocate contraception. Place published his Illustrations and Proofs of the Principles of Population in 1822. [33]

In Ireland, where (writing to Ricardo in 1817) Malthus proposed that "to give full effect to the natural resources of the country a great part of the population should be swept from the soil", [34] an early "refutation" of the Essay on Population was offered by George Ensor . In his Inquiry Concerning the Population of Nations (1818), he professed "astonishment" at Malthus's "general indemnity" of the rich and powerful:

Mr Malthus considers that attributing in any way the distress of the poor to the higher classes of society is a vulgar error [...] and that it depends on the conduct of the poor themselves . Does slavery depend on the slaves themselves? [...] Does it depend on the Irish peasantry that the proprietors are absentees ? or, on the Catholics of Ireland that they pay tithes to the protestant clergy ? Does it depend on the poor of England that they pay for salt a tax thirty times the original cost of the article? [35]

Seizing upon Malthus's proposition that "manufacturing is at once the consequence of a better distribution of property and the cause of further improvement", Ensor was later to press the argument that poverty is sustained, not by a reckless propensity to breed, but by government's indulgence of the heedless concentration of private wealth. [36]

A similar broadside was published in 1821 by Whitely Stokes . [37] His Observations on the population and resources of Ireland found fault in Malthus's calculations and juxtapositions, and insisting upon the advantages mankind derives from "improved industry, improved conveyance, improvements in morals, government and religion", argued that Ireland's difficulty lay not in her "numbers", but in her indifferent government. [38]

William Godwin criticized Malthus's criticisms of his own arguments in his book Of Population (1820). [39] Other theoretical and political critiques of Malthus and Malthusian thinking emerged soon after the publication of the first Essay on Population , most notably in the work of Robert Owen , of the essayist William Hazlitt (1807) [40] and of the economist Nassau William Senior , [41] and moralist William Cobbett . True Law of Population (1845) was by politician Thomas Doubleday , an adherent of Cobbett's views.

John Stuart Mill strongly defended the ideas of Malthus in his 1848 work, Principles of Political Economy (Book II, Chapters 11–13). Mill considered the criticisms of Malthus made thus far to have been superficial.

The American economist Henry Charles Carey rejected Malthus's argument in his magnum opus of 1858–59, The Principles of Social Science . Carey maintained that the only situation in which the means of subsistence will determine population growth is one in which a given society is not introducing new technologies or not adopting forward-thinking governmental policy, and that population regulated itself in every well-governed society, but its pressure on subsistence characterized the lower stages of civilization.

Another American, Daniel Raymond stated in his Thoughts on Political Economy (1820) “Although his theory is founded upon the principles of nature, and although it is impossible to discover any flaw in his reasoning, yet the mind instinctively revolts at the conclusions to which he conducts it, and we are disposed to reject the theory, even though we could give no good reason.” This rejection of conclusions, coincides with Malthus's own observation that “America had not reached the stage where the difficulties in increasing production were great enough appreciably to check population”. [42]

In France, ideas concerning overpopulation had been prevalent some time before Malthus published his Essay, “Pre-Malthusian French writers had developed an unorganized set of observations more in accord with fact and probability than Malthus’ well-integrated doctrine”. By 1798 two broad bodies of thought had already begun to form in the country, those who like Malthus, saw a danger in overpopulation and the stressing of productive limits, and the “pro-populationists” who argued that population growth would lead to productivity growth, and thus should be encouraged. [43]

Another strand of opposition to Malthus's ideas started in the middle of the 19th century with the writings of Friedrich Engels ( Outlines of a Critique of Political Economy , 1844) and Karl Marx ( Capital , 1867). Engels and Marx argued that what Malthus saw as the problem of the pressure of population on the means of production actually represented the pressure of the means of production on population. They thus viewed it in terms of their concept of the reserve army of labour . In other words, the seeming excess of population that Malthus attributed to the seemingly innate disposition of the poor to reproduce beyond their means actually emerged as a product of the very dynamic of capitalist economy.

Engels called Malthus's hypothesis "the crudest, most barbarous theory that ever existed, a system of despair which struck down all those beautiful phrases about love thy neighbour and world citizenship". [44] Engels also predicted [44] that science would solve the problem of an adequate food supply.

In the Marxist tradition, Lenin sharply criticized Malthusian theory and its neo-Malthusian version, [45] calling it a "reactionary doctrine" and "an attempt on the part of bourgeois ideologists to exonerate capitalism and to prove the inevitability of privation and misery for the working class under any social system".

In addition, many Russian philosophers could not easily apply Malthus' population theory to Russian society in the 1840s. In England, where Malthus lived, population was rapidly increasing but suitable agricultural land was limited. Russia, on the other hand, had extensive land with agricultural potential yet a relatively sparse population. It is possible that this discrepancy between Russian and English realities contributed to the rejection of Malthus' Essay on the Principle of Population by key Russian thinkers. [46] Another difference which contributed to the confusion and ultimately the rejection of Malthus's argument in Russia was its cultural basis in English capitalism. [46] This political contrast helps explain why it took Russia twenty years to publish a review of the work and fifty years to translate Malthus's Essay. [46]

In the 20th century, those who regarded Malthus as a failed prophet of doom included an editor of Nature , John Maddox . [47]

Economist Julian Lincoln Simon has criticised Malthus's conclusions. [48] He notes that despite the predictions of Malthus and of the neo-Malthusians , massive geometric population growth in the 20th century did not result in a Malthusian catastrophe . Many factors have been identified as having contributed: general improvements in farming methods ( industrial agriculture ), mechanization of work ( tractors ), the introduction of high-yield varieties of wheat and other plants ( Green Revolution ), the use of pesticides to control crop pests. Each played a role. [49]

The enviro-sceptic Bjørn Lomborg presented data to argue the case that the environment had actually improved, [50] and that calories produced per day per capita globally went up 23% between 1960 and 2000, despite the doubling of the world population in that period. [51]

From the opposite angle, Romanian American economist Nicholas Georgescu-Roegen , a progenitor in economics and a paradigm founder of ecological economics , has argued that Malthus was too optimistic, as he failed to recognize any upper limit to the growth of population—only, the geometric increase in human numbers is occasionally slowed down (checked) by the arithmetic increase in agricultural produce, according to Malthus' simple growth model; but some upper limit to population is bound to exist, as the total amount of agricultural land—actual as well as potential—on Earth is finite, Georgescu-Roegen points out. [52] :   366–369   Georgescu-Roegen further argues that the industrialised world's increase in agricultural productivity since Malthus' day has been brought about by a mechanisation that has substituted a scarcer source of input for the more abundant input of solar radiation: Machinery , chemical fertilisers and pesticides all rely on mineral resources for their operation, rendering modern agriculture—and the industrialised food processing and distribution systems associated with it—almost as dependent on Earth's mineral stock as the industrial sector has always been. Georgescu-Roegen cautions that this situation is a major reason why the carrying capacity of Earth—that is, Earth's capacity to sustain human populations and consumption levels—is bound to decrease sometime in the future as Earth's finite stock of mineral resources is presently being extracted and put to use. [53] :   303   Political advisor Jeremy Rifkin and ecological economist Herman Daly , two students of Georgescu-Roegen, have raised similar neo-Malthusian concerns about the long run drawbacks of modern mechanised agriculture. [54] :   136–140   [55] :   10f  

Anthropologist Eric Ross depicts Malthus's work as a rationalization of the social inequities produced by the Industrial Revolution , anti-immigration movements, the eugenics movement [ clarification needed ] and the various international development movements. [56]

Despite use of the term "Malthusian catastrophe" by detractors such as economist Julian Simon (1932–1998), Malthus himself did not write that mankind faced an inevitable future catastrophe. Rather, he offered an evolutionary social theory of population dynamics as it had acted steadily throughout all previous history. [57] Eight major points regarding population dynamics appear in the 1798 Essay : [ citation needed ]

• subsistence severely limits population-level
• when the means of subsistence increases, population increases
• population-pressures stimulate increases in productivity
• increases in productivity stimulate further population-growth
• because productivity increases cannot maintain the potential rate of population growth, population requires strong checks to keep parity with the carrying-capacity
• individual cost/benefit decisions regarding sex, work, and children determine the expansion or contraction of population and production
• checks will come into operation as population exceeds subsistence-level
• the nature of these checks will have significant effect on the larger sociocultural system—Malthus points specifically to misery, vice, and poverty

Malthusian social theory influenced Herbert Spencer 's idea of the survival of the fittest , [58] and the modern ecological-evolutionary social theory of Gerhard Lenski and Marvin Harris . [59] Malthusian ideas have thus contributed to the canon of socioeconomic theory .

The first Director-General of UNESCO , Julian Huxley , wrote of The crowded world in his Evolutionary Humanism (1964), calling for a world population policy. Huxley openly criticised communist and Roman Catholic attitudes to birth control , population control and overpopulation .

Charles Darwin and Alfred Russel Wallace each read and acknowledged the role played by Malthus in the development of their own ideas. Darwin referred to Malthus as "that great philosopher", [60] and said of his On the Origin of Species : "This is the doctrine of Malthus, applied with manifold force to the animal and vegetable kingdoms, for in this case there can be no artificial increase of food, and no prudential restraint from marriage". [61]

Darwin also wrote:

"In October 1838   ... I happened to read for amusement Malthus on Population   ... it at once struck me that under these circumstances favourable variations would tend to be preserved, and unfavourable ones to be destroyed. The result of this would be the formation of new species." —   Barlow, Nora 1958. The autobiography of Charles Darwin . p. 128

Wallace stated:

But perhaps the most important book I read was Malthus's Principles of Population   ... It was the first great work I had yet read treating of any of the problems of philosophical biology, and its main principles remained with me as a permanent possession, and twenty years later gave me the long-sought clue to the effective agent in the evolution of organic species. —   Wallace, Alfred Russel 1908. My life: a record of events and opinions . [62]

Ronald Fisher commented sceptically on Malthusianism as a basis for a theory of natural selection . [63] Fisher emphasised the role of fecundity (reproductive rate), rather than assume actual conditions would not reduce future births. [64]

John Maynard Smith doubted that famine functioned as the great leveller, as portrayed by Malthus, but he also accepted the basic premises:

Writers who have presented ideas that have paralleled various of those of Malthus include: Paul R. Ehrlich who has written several books predicting famine as a result of population increase: The Population Bomb (1968); Population, resources, environment: issues in human ecology (1970, with Anne Ehrlich); The end of affluence (1974, with Anne Ehrlich); The population explosion (1990, with Anne Ehrlich). In the late 1960s Ehrlich predicted that hundreds of millions would die from a coming overpopulation-crisis in the 1970s. Other examples of work that has been accused of "Malthusianism" include the 1972 book The Limits to Growth (published by the Club of Rome ) and the Global 2000 report to the then President of the United States Jimmy Carter . Isaac Asimov also produced many essays on topics related to overpopulation. [65]

Ecological economist Herman Daly has recognized the influence of Malthus on his own work on steady-state economics . [55] :   xvi  

Other scholars have more recently [ update ] linked population and economics to a third variable, political change and political violence, and to show how the variables interact. In the early 1980s, Jack Goldstone linked population variables to the English Revolution of 1640–1660 [ citation needed ] and David Lempert devised a model of demographics, economics, and political change in the multi-ethnic country of Mauritius . [66] Goldstone has since modeled other revolutions by looking at demographics and economics [ citation needed ] and Lempert has explained Stalin 's purges and the Russian Revolution of 1917 in terms of demographic factors that drive political economy. Ted Robert Gurr has also modeled political violence, such as in the Palestinian territories and in Rwanda / Congo (two of the world's regions of most rapidly growing population) using similar variables in several comparative cases. These approaches suggest that political ideology follows demographic forces.

Physics professor, Albert Allen Bartlett , has lectured over 1,500 times on "Arithmetic, Population, and Energy", promoting sustainable living and explaining the mathematics of overpopulation .

Malthus is directly referenced by science-fiction author K. Eric Drexler in Engines of Creation (1986): "In a sense, opening space will burst our limits to growth, since we know of no end to the universe. Nevertheless, Malthus was essentially right."

The Malthusian growth model now bears Malthus's name. The logistic function of Pierre François Verhulst (1804–1849) results in the S-curve . Verhulst developed the logistic growth model favored by so many critics of the Malthusian growth model in 1838 only after reading Malthus's essay.

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• 1 2 "Malthus' Principle of Population" . BRIA 26 2 The Debate Over World Population: Was Malthus Right? . Vol.   26. Constitutional Rights Foundation (CRF). Winter 2010 . Retrieved 7 April 2016 .
• ↑ The fourth edition appeared in 1807 in two volumes. See Malthus, Thomas Robert (1807), An Essay on the Principle of Population, or a View of Its Past and Present Effects on Human Happiness, with An Enquiry into Our Prospects Respecting the Future Removal or Mitigation of the Evils Which It Occasions , vol.   I (Fourth   ed.), London: J. Johnson , volume II via Google Books
• ↑ See, e.g., Peter Turchin 2003; Turchin and Korotayev 2006 Archived February 29, 2012, at the Wayback Machine ; Peter Turchin et al. 2007; Korotayev et al. 2006.
• ↑ Geoffrey Gilbert, introduction to Malthus T.R. 1798. An Essay on the Principle of Population . Oxford World's Classics reprint. p. viii
• ↑ Malthus T.R. 1798. An Essay on the Principle of Population . Chapter V, pp.   39–45, in Oxford World's Classics reprint.
• ↑ By doing what appears good, we may do harm. Unintended consequences play a major role in economic thought; see the invisible hand and the tragedy of the commons .
• ↑ p607, cited in http://www.naf.org.au/roberts.rtf Archived 22 March 2012 at the Wayback Machine .
• ↑ Eyler, John M (1979). Victorian Social Medicine: the ideas and methods of William Farr . Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press. ISBN   978-0-8018-2246-9 .
• ↑ R. L. Meek, ed. (1953). Marx and Engels on Malthus . London: Lawrence & Wishart.
• ↑ Quoted in Tellegen, Egbert; Wolsink, Maarten (1998). Society and Its Environment: An Introduction . Routledge. p.   16. ISBN   978-90-5699-125-8 . Retrieved 12 February 2010 . Malthus, 1976, p.225
• ↑ Bowler, Peter J. (2003). Evolution: the history of an idea . Berkeley: University of California Press. pp.   104–105 . ISBN   978-0-520-23693-6 .
• ↑ Malthus, Thomas (1959). Population: The First Essay . University of Michigan Press. p.   127. ISBN   978-0-472-06031-3 .
• ↑ Malthus T.R. 1798. An Essay on the Principle of Population . Oxford World's Classics reprint. p. 158.
• ↑ Malthus, An Essay on the Principle of Population , 1st ed., published anonymously, (St. Paul's Churchyard, London: J. Johnson, 1798), p. 73.
• ↑ Genesis I:28
• ↑ Malthus T.R. 1826. An Essay on the Principle of Population, Sixth Edition , App.I.6.
• ↑ [Thomas Robert Malthus], An Essay on the Principle of Population, 1st ed (London: J. Johnson, 1798), p. iv.
• 1 2 Meiring, Henry-James (2020). "Thomas Robert Malthus, naturalist of the mind" . Annals of Science . 77 (4): 495–523. doi : 10.1080/00033790.2020.1823479 . PMID   33028149 . S2CID   222214071 .
• ↑ [Thomas Robert Malthus], An Essay on the Principle of Population, 1st ed (London: J. Johnson, 1798), pp. viii, 247, 355.
• ↑ [Thomas Robert Malthus], An Essay on the Principle of Population, 1st ed (London: J. Johnson, 1798), pp. 356-357.
• ↑ Thomas Robert Malthus (1826) [1798]. "Chap. IV". An Essay on the Principle of Population . Vol.   2 (6th   ed.). John Murray . Retrieved 13 February 2010 .
• ↑ Essay (1826), I:2. See also A:1:17. [ full citation needed ]
• ↑ Malthus T.R. 1798. An Essay on the Principle of Population . Oxford World's Classics reprint: p. xxix Chronology.
• ↑ Winch, Donald (2003). "Malthus, Thomas Robert" . Novelguide.com . Macmillan Reference USA. Archived from the original on 25 July 2011 . Retrieved 31 July 2008 . At this stage, Malthus had not yet reached the level of analysis that would later lead him to be called the founding father of modern demography.
• 1 2 Hardin, Garrett (Spring 1998). "The Feast of Malthus" . The Social Contract . The Social Contract Press . Retrieved 10 January 2015 .
• ↑ Thomas Robert Malthus, George Thomas Bettany, "A Summary View on the Principle of Population, p 36"
• ↑ Percy B. Shelley: "A philosophical view of reform." In The Complete Works of Percy Bysshe Shelley . London: Gordian, 1829. (vol. 7, p. 32)
• ↑ Dupaquier J. (ed). 1983. Malthus past and present . New York: Academic Press. p. 258
• ↑ Fogarty, Michael P. 1958. Introduction to Malthus, Essay on the Principle of Population . Dent, London. vi
• ↑ Petersen, William. 1979. Malthus . Heinemann, London. 2nd ed 1999. p 32
• ↑ Petersen, William. 1979. Malthus . Heinemann, London. 2nd ed 1999. Chapter 9: Fertility
• ↑ Mokyr, Joel (1980). "Malthusian Models and Irish History" . The Journal of Economic History . 40 (1): (159–166), 159. doi : 10.1017/S0022050700104681 . ISSN   0022-0507 . JSTOR   2120439 . S2CID   153849339 .
• ↑ Ensor, George (1818). An Inquiry Concerning the Population of Nations: Containing a Refutation of Mr. Malthus's Essay on Population . London: E. Wilson. pp.   81–82.
• ↑ Ensor, George Ensor (1844). Of property, and of its equal distribution, as promoting virtue, population, abundance . London: Effingham Wilson.
• ↑ Stokes, Whitley (1821). Observations on the Population and Resources of Ireland . Joshua Porter.
• ↑ Stokes (1821), pp. 4-5, 89-91
• ↑ Godwin, William (1820). Of Population: An Enquiry Concerning the Power of Increase in the Numbers of Mankind, Being an Answer to Mr. Malthus's Essay on That Subject . Longman, Hurst, Rees, Orme and Brown. p.   648 . Retrieved 29 March 2010 .
• ↑ A Reply to the Essay on Population, by the Rev. T. R. Malthus . For an annotated extract, see: Malthus And The Liberties Of The Poor , 1807.
• ↑ Two Lectures on Population , 1829. [ full citation needed ]
• ↑ Cady, G.J. (1931). "The Early American Reaction to the Theory of Malthus" . Journal of Political Economy . The University of Chicago Press. 39 (5): 601–632. doi : 10.1086/254249 . JSTOR   1837254 . S2CID   153981562 .
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• 1 2 Engels, Friedrich, "Outlines of a Critique of Political Economy", original in DEUTSCHFRANZÖSISCHE JAHRBÜCHER, First (and only) Issue, February 1844, reprinted in Meek (1971), (transl. not specified)
• ↑ V. I. Lenin: "The Working Class and NeoMalthusianism" in Pravda No. 137, 16 June 1913. V.I. Lenin (16 June 1913). "The Working Class and Neomalthusianism" . Pravda No. 137 . Collected Works. Vol.   19. Transcribed for MEIA and WW BBS by Workers' Web ASCII Pamphlet project. pp.   235–237. Archived from the original on 14 October 2012 . Retrieved 14 June 2013 .
• 1 2 3 Todes, Daniel P. (1987). "Darwin's Malthusian Metaphor and Russian Evolutionary Thought, 1859-1917". Isis . 78 (4): 537–551. doi : 10.1086/354551 . JSTOR   231917 . PMID   3329160 . S2CID   42883622 .
• ↑ Maddox, John 1972. The Doomsday Syndrome: an assault on pessimism .
• ↑ Simon J.L. 1981. The ultimate resource ; and 1992 The ultimate resource II .
• ↑ Antony Trewavas: "Malthus foiled again and again" , in Nature 418, 668–670 (8 August 2002), retrieved 28 December 2008
• ↑ Lomborg, Bjorn. 2001. The Skeptical Environmentalist . Cambridge UP, London. Chapter 5 Food and hunger, pp60–69; and note also Part III: "Can human prosperity continue?" pp91–160.
• ↑ Graph in Lomborg 2001 p61; data from United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization database http://apps.fao.org/ Archived 11 September 2002 at the Library of Congress Web Archives
• ↑ Georgescu-Roegen, Nicholas (1975). "Energy and Economic Myths" (PDF) . Southern Economic Journal . Tennessee: Southern Economic Association . 41 (3): 347–381. doi : 10.2307/1056148 . JSTOR   1056148 .
• ↑ Georgescu-Roegen, Nicholas (1971). The Entropy Law and the Economic Process (Full book accessible in three parts at SlideShare) . Cambridge, Massachusetts: Harvard University Press. ISBN   978-0674257801 . Retrieved 2 September 2016 .
• ↑ Rifkin, Jeremy (1980). Entropy: A New World View (PDF) . New York: The Viking Press. ISBN   978-0670297177 . Archived from the original (PDF contains only the title and contents pages of the book) on 18 October 2016.
• 1 2 Daly, Herman E. (1992). Steady-state economics (2nd   ed.). London: Earthscan Publications.
• ↑ Ross, Eric B. 1998. The Malthus factor: population, poverty, and politics in capitalist development . Zed Books, London, 1998. ISBN   1-85649-564-7
• ↑ See Elwell (2001) for an extended exposition. [ full citation needed ]
• ↑ Spencer, Herbert 1864. Principles of Biology , vol. 1, p 444
• ↑ Lenski, Gerhard. Ecological-evolutionary theory: Principles and applications. Routledge, 2015
• ↑ Letter to J.D. Hooker, 5 June 1860. [ full citation needed ]
• ↑ Darwin, Charles 1859. On the origin of species by means of natural selection . Murray, London. p. 63
• ↑ New edition, condensed and revised. Chapman & Hall, London. [ full citation needed ]
• ↑ Quoted in: Sober, Elliott (1993). The Nature of Selection: Evolutionary Theory in Philosophical focus . Bradford books. University of Chicago Press. pp.   194–195 of 383. ISBN   978-0-226-76748-2 . Retrieved 29 March 2010 . Malthusianism is not a proper starting point for the theory of natural selection for reasons made abundantly clear by Fisher (1930, pp.   46–47).   ... Fisher calls Malthusianism a consequence, not a foundation, of the theory of natural selection
• ↑ Quoted in: Sober, Elliott (1993). The Nature of Selection: Evolutionary Theory in Philosophical focus . Bradford books. University of Chicago Press. p.   194. ISBN   978-0-226-76748-2 . Retrieved 29 March 2010 . There is something like a relic of creationist philosophy in arguing from the observation, let us say, that a cod spawns a million eggs, that therefore its offspring are subject to Natural Selection; and it has the disadvantage of excluding fecundity from the class of characteristics of which we may attempt to appreciate the aptitude....
• ↑ Edward Seiler (1995). "Essays by Isaac Asimov about economics and overpopulation" . www.asimovonline.com .
• ↑ Lempert, David (June 1987). "A Demographic-Economic Explanation of Political Stability: Mauritius as a Microcosm". Eastern Africa Economic Review . 3 (1): 77–90. PMID   12342159 .
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• Malthus, An Essay On The Principle Of Population (1798 1st edition, plus excerpts 1803 2nd edition), Introduction by Philip Appleman , and assorted commentary on Malthus edited by Appleman. Norton Critical Editions. ISBN   0-393-09202-X .
• William Peterson, Malthus, Founder of Modern Demography (1979, 1999). ISBN   0-7658-0481-6 .
• Online chapter MALTHUS AND THE EVOLUTIONISTS: THE COMMON CONTEXT OF BIOLOGICAL AND SOCIAL THEORY from Darwin's Metaphor: Nature's Place in Victorian Culture by Professor Robert M. Young (1985, 1988, 1994). Cambridge University Press.
• Malthus, Thomas Robert (1798). An Essay on the Principle of Population as it affects the future improvement of society. With remarks on the speculations of Mr. Godwin, M. Condorcet and other writers .
• Malthus, Thomas Robert (1803). An Essay on the Principle of Population or, a View of its Past and Present Effects on Human Happiness; with an enquiry into our Prospects respecting the Future Removal or Mitigation of the Evils which it occasions (second   ed.).
• Darwin Online , Malthus, Thomas. 1826. An essay on the principle of population 6th edition. London: John Murray. Volume 1 , Volume 2 , free online access, full searchable text plus pdf views of each page.