• DOI: 10.30564/jesr.v4i4.3782
  • Corpus ID: 243478361

The Impact of Money Supply on the Economy: A Panel Study on Selected Countries

  • Javier de Oña García Matres , Tuan Viet Le
  • Published in Journal of Economic Science… 30 October 2021

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An empirical investigation of the quantity theory of money in pakistan, macroeconomic impact on indonesia's economic growth, 20 references, money supply, inflation and economic growth in nigeria, m2 targeting, money demand, and real gdp growth in nigeria: do rules apply, long-run links among money, prices and output: worldwide evidence, money, income, prices, and interest rates, testing the long-run neutrality of money in a developing economy: the case of india, is inflation always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon, causality link between money, output and prices in malaysia: an empirical re-examination, money supply influencing on economic growth-wide phenomena of aec open region, interest rates and m2 in an error correction macro model, the quantity theory of money: evidence from the united states, related papers.

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Monetary Regimes, Money Supply, and the US Business Cycle since 1959

Mercatus Research Paper

71 Pages Posted: 8 Jan 2019 Last revised: 11 Jan 2019

Hylton Hollander

Stellenbosch University

Date Written: December 5, 2018

The monetary authority’s choice of operating procedure has significant implications for the role of monetary aggregates and interest rate policy on the business cycle. Using a dynamic general equilibrium model, we show that the type of endogenous monetary regime, together with the interaction between money supply and demand, captures well the actual behavior of a monetary economy—the United States. The results suggest that the evolution toward a stricter interest rate–targeting regime renders central bank balance-sheet expansions ineffective. In the context of the 2007–2009 Great Recession, a more flexible interest rate–targeting regime would have led to a significant monetary expansion and more rapid economic recovery in the United States.

Keywords: monetary regimes, monetary policy, money demand, US business cycle

JEL Classification: E32, E41, E42, E52, E58, N12

Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation

Hylton Hollander (Contact Author)

Stellenbosch university ( email ).

Matieland Stellenbosch, WesternCape 7600 South Africa +27218082478 (Phone)

HOME PAGE: http://www.ekon.sun.ac.za/staff/hollanderhylton

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Impact of money supply in different states of inflation and economic growth in south africa.

research paper money supply

1. Introduction

2. literature review, 2.1. south african monetary policy review, 2.2. theoretical review, 2.3. empirical review, 3. methodology, 3.1. theoretical framework, 3.1.1. cobb–douglas, 3.1.2. the classical quantity theory of money, 3.2. model specification, 3.2.1. markov-switching dynamic regression, 3.2.2. time-varying vector autoregressive (ta-var), 5. conclusions, data availability statement, acknowledgments, conflicts of interest.

ParameterMeanStdev95% U95% LGewekeInef.
sb10.00290.00060.0020.00430.1579.97
sb20.00280.00060.0020.00420.3466.59
sa10.00560.00160.00340.00970.91212.51
sa20.00580.00220.00340.01090.31926.66
sh10.00560.00170.00340.010.99514.81
sh21.59840.41770.91252.53230.4211.63
TVP-VAR model (Lag = 1) Iteration: 20000
ParameterMeanStdev95% U95% LGewekeInef.
sb10.00290.00060.0020.00430.1579.97
sb20.00280.00060.0020.00420.3466.59
sa10.00560.00160.00340.00970.91212.51
sa20.00580.00220.00340.01090.31926.66
sh10.00560.00170.00340.010.99514.81
sh21.59840.41770.91252.53230.4211.63
TVP-VAR model (Lag = 1) Iteration: 20000

Click here to enlarge figure

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Economic VariablesDescription Source
Inflation rateSouth African Reserve Bank
Money growth rate (money supply)Fed USA
Average output labour ratioSouth African Reserve Bank
Average output capital ratioSouth African Reserve Bank
Economic growth rateSouth African Reserve Bank
Nominal interest rateFed USA
The nominal or real exchange rateWorld Bank
Foreign interest rateFed USA
Economic VariableObsMeanStd. Dev.MinMax
322.0656252.499498−6.35.6
320.59509342.139125−4.332274.22754
320.16988811.969614−2.331345.218176
326.6456743.44028−0.692030315.3348
3211.564255.6297053.46812723.25785
329.5730933.9130393.9258317.80583
3210.859423.3196466.35932816.4591
311.7319351.4721010.56.02
Economic Variable
1.0000
0.85471.0000
−0.22950.18231.0000
−0.3187−0.5907−0.36381.0000
0.43270.3890−0.09770.17041.0000
−0.0425−0.3793−0.62800.72110.44551.0000
−0.2746−0.2060−0.2003−0.1383−0.22990.03711.0000
0.49240.51900.0785−0.37930.5788−0.0811−0.20591.0000
Variables Dickey–Fuller Test for Unit RootPhillips–Perron Test for Unit Root
Test1%5%10%Test1%5%10%
Z(t)−3.747−3.709−2.9583−2.6231−3.709−2.9583−2.623
Z(t)−5.487−3.716−2.986−2.624−5.487−3.716−2.986−2.624
Z(t)−8.280−3.716−2.986−2.624−8.280−3.716−2.986−2.624
Z(t)−5.123−3.716−2.986−2.624−5.123−3.716−2.986−2.624
Z(t)−4.380−3.716−2.986−2.624−4.380−3.716−2.986−2.624
Z(t)−3.903−3.716−2.986−2.624−3.903−3.716−2.986−2.624
Z(t)−3.111−3.716−2.986−2.624−3.111−3.716−2.986−2.624
Z(t)−5.378−3.723−2.989−2.625−5.378−3.723−2.989−2.625
Economic VariablesEstimations
1234
State 1
0.316 ***1.255 ***0.518 ***
(3.55)(15.99)(6.94)
−0.888 ***−1.107 ***−0.593 ***
(−15.73)(−24.51)(−16.56)
1.773 ***−0.04010.0855
(7.34)(−0.73)(1.17)
−0.169 ***−0.708 ***
(−5.79)(−13.19)
0.592 ***
(9.65)
−2.003 *−6.924 ***3.102 ***1.359 ***
(−2.64)(−6.44)(10.16)(6.36)
State 2
1.015 ***0.927 ***0.998 ***
(31.91)(24.69)(43.19)
−0.230 ***−0.213 ***−0.202 ***
(−8.29)(−8.70)(−10.60)
0.0486 *0.0104−0.00610
(2.45)(0.45)(−0.52)
0.0399 ***0.00901
(4.62)(1.24)
0.0432 **
(3.00)
2.757 ***1.313 ***1.148 ***1.131 ***
(6.91)(7.96)(6.67)(9.64)
N32323232
Economic VariablesEstimations
1234
State 1
0.1600.0238 ***−0.0576 ***
(1.45)(0.17) (−0.70)
0.672 ***0.2830.600 ***
(4.88)(1.32)(4.17)
−0.844 ***−0.589 ***
(−3.98)(−3.41)
−0.822−0.536
(−1.34)(−1.47)
−0.204
(−1.65)
5.703 ***−4.49816.06 ***10.14 **
(11.97)(−1.89)(4.47)(3.03)
State 2
−0.06990.245 ***0.358 ***
(−0.75)(1.26)(3.43)
0.914 ***0.403−0.0770
(8.36)(0.96)(−0.45)
0.2220.239
(1.05)(1.82)
−1.141 *−1.139 ***
(−2.39)(−3.73)
−0.697 **
(−2.95)
13.24 ***0.0977−0.3233.512 **
(6.66)(0.12)(−0.14)(2.91)
N32323232
Transition ProbabilitiesTransition Probabilities
0.9162037 0.0837963 0.8492753 0.1507247
0.0615749 0.9384251 0.1985816 0.8014184
Number of obs = 31Number of obs = 31
Estimate for Estimate for
StatesExpected DurationStatesExpected Duration
State 111.93371State 16.634613
State 216.24039State 25.035713
Number of obs = 31Number of obs = 31
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Buthelezi, E.M. Impact of Money Supply in Different States of Inflation and Economic Growth in South Africa. Economies 2023 , 11 , 64. https://doi.org/10.3390/economies11020064

Buthelezi EM. Impact of Money Supply in Different States of Inflation and Economic Growth in South Africa. Economies . 2023; 11(2):64. https://doi.org/10.3390/economies11020064

Buthelezi, Eugene Msizi. 2023. "Impact of Money Supply in Different States of Inflation and Economic Growth in South Africa" Economies 11, no. 2: 64. https://doi.org/10.3390/economies11020064

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The Impact of Money Supply on the Economy: A Panel Study on Selected Countries

research paper money supply

This study investigates the impact of money supply on economic growth rate, inflation rate, exchange rate and real interest rate. We used a panel of 217 countries from 1960 to 2020 and four different models to address these questions. The empirical results support the quantity theory of money. In addition, the study found evidence for a negative relationship between real interest rate and inflation and between money supply and real interest rate. Finally, our results show that lagged money growth rate is positively correlated with GDP growth rate but money growth rate is negatively correlated with GDP growth rate.

[1] Adetunji. M and Isa.M (2011), “Money Supply, Inflation and Economic Growth in Nigeria” Asian-African Journal of Economics and Econometrics, Vol 11, No 1, pp 221-237.

[2] Chaitip. P et al. (2015), “Money Supply Influencing on Economic Growth-Wide Phenomena of AEC Open Region” International Conference of Applied Economics, Vol 24, pp. 108-115.

[3] De Grauwe. P and Polan. M (2005), “Is Inflation Always and Everywhere a Monetary Phenomenon?” Scand. J. of Economics, Vol 107(2), pp. 239-259.

[4] Drabicki. J and Takayama.A (1984), “The Stability of a Neoclassical Monetary Growth Model” The Economic Studies Quarterly, Vol 35, No 3.

[5] Dwyer, G. P. Jr. and Hafer, R. W. (1999), “Are Money Growth and Inflation Still Related?”, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Economic Review 84, 32-43.

[6] Emerson.J (2006), “The Quantity Theory of Money: Evidence from the United States” Economics Bulletin, Vol. 5, No. 2 pp. 1-6.

[7] Fischer. S (1983), “Inflation and Growth” National Bureau of Economic Research, No 1235.

[8] Friedman, B, and Kuttner, K. (1992), “Money, Income, Prices, and Interest Rates.”, The American Economic Review, 82: 472-492.

[9] Herwartz, H., and Reimers H.-E. (2006), “Long-Run Links among Money, Prices and Output: Worldwide Evidence”, German Economic Review, Vol. 7: 65-86.

[10] Jansen, E. (2004), “Modelling Inflation in the Euro Area”, ECB Working Paper no. 322, Frankfurt.

[11] Majid, M. Z. A. (2007), “Causal Link between Money, Output and Prices in Malaysia: An Empirical Re-Examination”, Applied Econometrics and International Development, 7(1).

[12] Miyao, R. (1996) “Does a Cointegrating M2 Demand Relation Really Exist in the United States?”, Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking 28 (3), 365-380.

[13] Moosa, I. A. (1997) “Testing the long-run neutrality of money in a developing economy: The case of India.”, Journal of Developmental Economics 53, 139- 155.

[14] Moazzami, B. and Gupta, K. L. (1996) “The quantity theory of money and its long-run implications.”, Journal of Macroeconomics 17, 667-682.

[15] Owoye O, Onafowora AO. (2007) “M2 Targeting , Money Demand and Real GDP Growth in Nigeria: Do Rules Apply?” Journal of Business and Public Affair, 1(2): 25-34.

[16] Ramachandra, V. S. (1986) “Direction of Causality between Monetary and Real Variables in India-An Extended Result.”, Indian Economic Journal, 34: 98- 102.

[17] Sims C.A. (1992). “Money Income, Causality”, American Economic Review, 62: 540 -542.

[18] Whitesell, W. (1997) “Interest Rates and M2 in an Error Correction Macro Model.” Finance and Economics Discussion Series 59, Washington: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

[19] Wooldridge, J. M., (2019). Introductory Econometrics: A Modern Approach, 7th Edition, Mason, Ohio: South-Western Cengage Learning.

research paper money supply

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    This study investigates the impact of money supply on economic growth rate, inflation rate, exchange rate and real interest rate. We used a panel of 217 countries from 1960 to 2020 and four...

  2. Money Supply Influencing on Economic Growth ... - ScienceDirect

    The findings from this study showed that there is a long run relationship between money supply and economic growth. Money supply (M1) was a positive correction with GDP growth, while demand deposits were a negative correction on GDP growth.

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    This paper looks at the way in which this ‘new consensus’ is (at last) forcing a recognition, in the teaching of money, that the money supply is endogenously determined.

  4. The Impact of Money Supply on the Economy: A Panel Study on ...

    The study uses a panel of 217 countries in the world ranging from 1960 to 2020 to empirically test the impact of money supply on economic growth rates, exchange rates and real interest rates....

  5. [PDF] The Impact of Money Supply on the Economy: A Panel ...

    This study investigates the impact of money supply on economic growth rate, inflation rate, exchange rate and real interest rate. We used a panel of 217 countries from 1960 to 2020 and four different models to address these questions. The empirical results support the quantity theory of money.

  6. Determinants of Money Supply in India: A Post Reform Scenario

    The paper assesses in detail the major determinants of money supply and how the nature of determinants has changed over the period of time. The analysis is based on money multiple processes, using RBI’s annual data for the period 1990-91 to 2014-15.

  7. Monetary Regimes, Money Supply, and the US Business ... - SSRN

    Using a dynamic general equilibrium model, we show that the type of endogenous monetary regime, together with the interaction between money supply and demand, captures well the actual behavior of a monetary economy—the United States.

  8. Economies | Free Full-Text | Impact of Money Supply in ... - MDPI

    This paper investigates the impact of the money supply in different states of inflation and economic growth in South Africa from 1990 to 2021. The term “states” defines periods of low and high rates of economic variables of interest.

  9. The Impact of Money Supply on the Economy: A Panel Study on ...

    This study investigates the impact of money supply on economic growth rate, inflation rate, exchange rate and real interest rate. We used a panel of 217 countries from 1960 to 2020 and four different models to address these questions. The empirical results support the quantity theory of money.

  10. A Review of Empirical Studies on Money Supply at Abroad and ...

    Managing the nation's money supply is essential so as to assist the economy in achieving a high level of employment, output, relatively stable price level and a viable balance of payment. Now our aim is to review the literature on money supply studies at length at abroad and in India.